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David Henig Profile picture
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19 Jan, 5 tweets, 1 min read
"We have taken back control of our laws and our destiny"
You may note that trade with the 60-odd countries with which we have Free Trade Agreements does not appear to be making up for the new EU trade barriers.
So far the impacts of the new trade barriers with the EU are exactly as predicted by neutral specialists. And those GDP reductions do in fact have an impact on 'real people'.
Maybe we do actually need a bit more scrutiny of government than "look, shiny Free Trade Agreement!"
Remember it isn't just fish and meat exports that are causing problems. Or just Northern Ireland - Britain trade. There is a whole UK-EU trade ecosystem that is changing in front of our eyes.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…
We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/ Image
Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
Well this is a bit of a blow to the "Johnson isn't Trump" line given it repeats what happened in the US a couple of years ago independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
Also completely ridiculous government, but in line with what we are seeing on Brexit generally, where reality must be continually deferred
The world outside the UK is pretty sure incidentally that Johnson / Brexit is straight from the Trump playbook. Correctly. But it plays well domestically with the culture war fighters. So can the government have a sort of home / away split personality? So far, no.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Jan
Worth following these tweets from the Northern Ireland committee. Government minister having to deny what is happening to GB-Northern Ireland trade because the government committed to no checks. Also full renegotiation unlikely.

Suspect money on the way.
What to do when the deal/s negotiated with the EU are not in fact the ones promised or claimed? That's the government's problem. Looks like it will be tough talk for the media, but in reality pay-offs for the affected sectors.
Dangerous game though because every sector wants the money, yesterday fish, today Northern Ireland, tomorrow musicians? But that would be the price of keeping the false narrative about the great deal.

Strong Trump trade war with China leading to payoff to US farmers vibe.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Jan
I understand the need for business organisations to be on friendly terms with government but I really think they have to be careful joining the fantasy world of this quotes. The UK-Japan deal is neither specifically designed for UK needs or demonstrates UK trade leadership.
And for the government, yes of course the words of business are nice even if government might have written them, but if they aren't actually true they will prove rather empty when business fails to take advantage.
The UK government's most dangerous and let's face it Trumpian quality is the level of fantasy in statements and PM speeches, like the no barriers to GB-NI trade, or all new trade barriers with the EU are just teething troubles. And yes the new US administration will notice.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Jan
A huge relief today at the change of US President and a return to some sort of orthodox government. Now pre-2016 US in international relations wasn't easy for the world, as post-2020 won't be. But it will be normal. And expect normality... and you can see where I'm going here...
A UK government trying to cozy up to the new administration is I suspect going to be asked some pretty tough questions about the UK's present and future - starting with Northern Ireland and Scotland, and then our neighbourhood.
Because the US will expect support from the UK on the major global issues such as China. That's the nature of the post-war relationship. But our primary role is in our region. The US doesn't expect South Korea to influence Europe. What is the UK going to do in Europe?
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Jan
MPs voting to weaken UK trade negotiating strength is sadly unsurprising. That is how you get to a position where the EU expects us to fold at the end point of negotiations and we do. Australia, New Zealand and the US will expect the same.
It is remarkable how little the UK government has learnt about trade negotiations since 2016. It still thinks secrecy and no detailed objectives gets good deals for the country. We have now seen how this fails. But still no change.
And in their failure to engage Parliament (and devolveds etc) properly in trade deals the government is rejecting the view of business, civil society, trade experts and the House of Lords. Impressive and unwarranted arrogance.
Read 6 tweets

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