Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
20 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Worth following these tweets from the Northern Ireland committee. Government minister having to deny what is happening to GB-Northern Ireland trade because the government committed to no checks. Also full renegotiation unlikely.

Suspect money on the way.
What to do when the deal/s negotiated with the EU are not in fact the ones promised or claimed? That's the government's problem. Looks like it will be tough talk for the media, but in reality pay-offs for the affected sectors.
Dangerous game though because every sector wants the money, yesterday fish, today Northern Ireland, tomorrow musicians? But that would be the price of keeping the false narrative about the great deal.

Strong Trump trade war with China leading to payoff to US farmers vibe.
Also. The negotiation was the one completed in December over Northern Ireland. Remember, the dropping of the Internal Market Bill clauses and all that? Is government now saying it was a failure?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Jan
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...

Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...

Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...

More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...

Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...

This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Jan
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?

Also, that the UK's choice was a US trade deal over less friction with the EU? thetimes.co.uk/article/brusse…
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
Nearly a day into office and Presaident Biden still hasn't fixed global trade policy. By the end of day perhaps?

Except that as I write here, some of the issues he has to fix have been outstanding for 25 years. This is going to be tough. borderlex.net/2021/01/20/per…
US trade policy actually changed surprisingly little in the last four years, even if operation was more threatening and vulgar. Change of substance under Biden, either of the aim to set global standards, or the protectionism seems a big ask. Style will change though.
Which remains a reason to believe there may be a UK-US deal. Yes there will be an attempt to bridge US-EU differences, and I hope they work. But I'm sceptical, and if they don't, a UK-US deal could at least deliver a symbolic and easy win for the administration.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
First full day in office for the new Biden team, and those looking at foreign policy are greeted by the UK setting off a needless diplomatic spat with the EU by repeating a move from the Trump playbook.

Hell of a first impression that is giving.
An ally already not fully trusted by the Biden administration because of threats to his beloved Ireland through the Internal Market Bill decides to make a show against the EU on his first full day in office.

Serious questions have to be asked of this UK government decision.
Quite so. Good relationships with the EU and Member States are essential to the future of the UK and few should disagree whatever their politics.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…
We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/ Image
Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jan
Well this is a bit of a blow to the "Johnson isn't Trump" line given it repeats what happened in the US a couple of years ago independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
Also completely ridiculous government, but in line with what we are seeing on Brexit generally, where reality must be continually deferred
The world outside the UK is pretty sure incidentally that Johnson / Brexit is straight from the Trump playbook. Correctly. But it plays well domestically with the culture war fighters. So can the government have a sort of home / away split personality? So far, no.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK