I understand the need for business organisations to be on friendly terms with government but I really think they have to be careful joining the fantasy world of this quotes. The UK-Japan deal is neither specifically designed for UK needs or demonstrates UK trade leadership.
And for the government, yes of course the words of business are nice even if government might have written them, but if they aren't actually true they will prove rather empty when business fails to take advantage.
The UK government's most dangerous and let's face it Trumpian quality is the level of fantasy in statements and PM speeches, like the no barriers to GB-NI trade, or all new trade barriers with the EU are just teething troubles. And yes the new US administration will notice.
One big problem with a fantasy world in which the UK is a free trade leader and our agreements great for UK business is that those of us who say (because we study these things) this is not true become the enemy within. Dangerous territory.
The other problem of course being if you can claim a trade agreement is a great triumph when it is not, why bother with the boring detail of actually finding out what would be good for the UK and negotiating it?
Down to trade twitter and academics to try to keep the government within at least some touch of reality. Which hopefully we'll manage in between trying also to help business navigate the realities.
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"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...
Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...
Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...
More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...
Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...
This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Nearly a day into office and Presaident Biden still hasn't fixed global trade policy. By the end of day perhaps?
Except that as I write here, some of the issues he has to fix have been outstanding for 25 years. This is going to be tough. borderlex.net/2021/01/20/per…
US trade policy actually changed surprisingly little in the last four years, even if operation was more threatening and vulgar. Change of substance under Biden, either of the aim to set global standards, or the protectionism seems a big ask. Style will change though.
Which remains a reason to believe there may be a UK-US deal. Yes there will be an attempt to bridge US-EU differences, and I hope they work. But I'm sceptical, and if they don't, a UK-US deal could at least deliver a symbolic and easy win for the administration.
First full day in office for the new Biden team, and those looking at foreign policy are greeted by the UK setting off a needless diplomatic spat with the EU by repeating a move from the Trump playbook.
Hell of a first impression that is giving.
An ally already not fully trusted by the Biden administration because of threats to his beloved Ireland through the Internal Market Bill decides to make a show against the EU on his first full day in office.
Serious questions have to be asked of this UK government decision.
Quite so. Good relationships with the EU and Member States are essential to the future of the UK and few should disagree whatever their politics.
Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…
We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/
Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/
Well this is a bit of a blow to the "Johnson isn't Trump" line given it repeats what happened in the US a couple of years ago independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
The world outside the UK is pretty sure incidentally that Johnson / Brexit is straight from the Trump playbook. Correctly. But it plays well domestically with the culture war fighters. So can the government have a sort of home / away split personality? So far, no.