Thread by @DavidHenigUK

Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…

We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/

Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/

But if there are tariffs applicable, they can be high. Why do you think agricultural exporters like Australia, New Zealand, and the US are so keen on a UK trade deal? Thus always raising the question of what we get in return, such as for services? 4/

Finally (since the report doesn't cover services) non-tariff measures to goods trade. Basically nearly all goods trade is subject to such measures (see coverage ratio lines). SPS measures covering food, TBT covering industrial products. 5/

And if we look at where the non-tariff measures are highest, it is also the developed countries that trade most. No great surprises there. 6/

So what we broadly learn or confirm from UNCTAD trade stats 2020 is:

1. Regional trade is important
2. Tariffs are generally low
3. Remove agricultural tariffs if that's your priority
4. Otherwise non-tariff barriers should be the priority (and probably services).

7/

No, UK trade priorities so far do not reflect what we learn from studying global trade patterns.

8/ end