Well this is a bit of a blow to the "Johnson isn't Trump" line given it repeats what happened in the US a couple of years ago independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
The world outside the UK is pretty sure incidentally that Johnson / Brexit is straight from the Trump playbook. Correctly. But it plays well domestically with the culture war fighters. So can the government have a sort of home / away split personality? So far, no.
Also, not a great start to our year as supposed global diplomats hosting G7 and COP27. Plus the EU is still going to be the neighbour with whom we have to trade and engage, and we still need further agreements. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Also, we just set ourselves up for another defeat against the EU as the decision will inevitably be reversed. Continuing the theme of Johnson-EU negotiations, talk tough, take rash action, be widely condemned, lose. What a way to run a government. Johnson as Trump-lite.
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Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...
Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...
Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...
More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...
Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...
This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Nearly a day into office and Presaident Biden still hasn't fixed global trade policy. By the end of day perhaps?
Except that as I write here, some of the issues he has to fix have been outstanding for 25 years. This is going to be tough. borderlex.net/2021/01/20/per…
US trade policy actually changed surprisingly little in the last four years, even if operation was more threatening and vulgar. Change of substance under Biden, either of the aim to set global standards, or the protectionism seems a big ask. Style will change though.
Which remains a reason to believe there may be a UK-US deal. Yes there will be an attempt to bridge US-EU differences, and I hope they work. But I'm sceptical, and if they don't, a UK-US deal could at least deliver a symbolic and easy win for the administration.
First full day in office for the new Biden team, and those looking at foreign policy are greeted by the UK setting off a needless diplomatic spat with the EU by repeating a move from the Trump playbook.
Hell of a first impression that is giving.
An ally already not fully trusted by the Biden administration because of threats to his beloved Ireland through the Internal Market Bill decides to make a show against the EU on his first full day in office.
Serious questions have to be asked of this UK government decision.
Quite so. Good relationships with the EU and Member States are essential to the future of the UK and few should disagree whatever their politics.
Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…
We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/
Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/