Salesforce $CRM is one of the most popular tech stocks right now.

It's made a lot of people A LOT of money.

But we're short $CRM at @MacroOps.

Is it because we're masochists that love the pain? Not quite.

Our four reasons why we're short $CRM 🙃↘️
macro-ops.com/its-time-to-sh…
1/ Moving Averages, P/S Ratio and Revenue Growth

- $CRM is coming off a near-record high gap between its price and 200-day moving average.

- It recently put in its second-highest price-to-sales ratio of 13x

- Plus its revenue growth is declining to its slowest on record
2/ Lack of Short Interest

Shorts gave up a LOONNNNGGG time ago (and good on them). They avoided getting their faces ripped off.

Now, Short Interest as % of float hovers around all-time lows.
3/ Can't Find A Bear On Wall Street

Everyone's bullish on $CRM. That doesn't mean we're right simply because we're taking the other side!!

Just something to note as the bull trade is overcrowded.

~90% of WS Analysts have a Buy/Strong Buy rating on the stock.
4/ Major Technical Bull Trap In Place

Last week the stock closed below the upper level of its 3-year broadening top pattern, suggesting the stock has put in a major bull trap.
5/ Concluding Thoughts

While we remain VERY short $CRM we're cognizant of the market we're in and the momentum factors at play.

We're playing it close with aggressive risk management and will be quick to exit the trade should it reverse strongly against us.

Godspeed, shorts.

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More from @marketplunger1

20 Jan
An interesting idea to add to your watchlist:

My E.G. Services $MYEG

They're Malaysia’s leading provider of digital e-government and commercial services, acting as a bridge between government and citizens.

37% 5YR Revenue CAGR w/ 50%+ EBIT margins 👀👀
macro-ops.com/my-e-g-service…
1/ The "Rails" of Digital Gov't

Anchor services: drivers’ license renewals, foreign worker’s permits/job matching, and collecting/transmitting retail tax data

Other Services: Check bankruptcy statuses, handle summons checking/payments, and assist in collecting Zakat (tithe). Image
2/ Gov't To Commercial Services

MYEG leverages e-gov solutions to bundle strong commercial revenues.

These include auto loans, auto insurance and motor vehicle transaction portals

They're also doing this in the Philippines with MYEG Insurance (online insurance portal) Image
Read 8 tweets
13 Jan
Dennis Hong (@DennisHong17) Framework For Understanding Optionality is a MUST READ.

S/O to @ClarkSquareCap for sharing!

Source: files.constantcontact.com/3b2a12b0701/26…

Here are Dennis' Four Types of Optionalities 📝
Optionality #1: New Business / Businesses

- Amazon/JD forming logistics businesses
- Tencent/Sea, Ltd forming payments businesses

In essence, using core biz to develop new (asymmetric) opportunities.

Where to find these options: in the business' operating cost structure
Optionality #2: Product / Category Expansion

- JD's "JD Health" business
- Tinder's "Boost" feature
- Square's "For Retail" and "For Restaurant"

How to find: focus on the customers’ objectives & determine whether the current or potential products/services fulfils objective
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
📝📝 2020 @MacroOps Portfolio Review 📝📝

Here's our portfolio metrics:

- Return: +66.40%
- Max Peak-2-Trough DD: -14.13%

Overall grade: B-

While the returns look good, we could've done better.

Here's a thread discussing our many errors in 2020! 👇
macro-ops.com/macro-ops-2020…
1/ Our Three Biggest Errors

Recurring revenue is great. Recurring mistakes, not so great. Here were our biggest mistakes:

1) Too slow to act on a high conviction thesis
2) Overly constrictive trade management
3) Not sizing up (within limits) on higher conviction opportunities
2/ Error 1: Slow To Act on High Convictions

We come across a fantastic setup that has a Trifecta of tailwinds (sentiment, fundamental, technical) behind it.

We pitch it, write it up for the group.

And then don’t take the first entry and watch as our thesis plays out to the T
Read 10 tweets
30 Dec 20
[THREAD] A Sober Look at SPACs

Sorry to rain on the SPAC parade, but it's important to understand the inherent shareholder disadvantages in the current SPAC structure:

- Higher cost/dilution
- Lower returns

Great article from Harvard Law.

Source: corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/19/a-s…
1/ The SPAC Structure

SPACs raise cash and have 2 years to find a company to take public.

SPAC owners dilute shareholders via three ways:

- Warrants
- Shares
- Rights

This leads to SPACs historic high costs & poor post-merger performance.

Here's an illustration ...
2/ Further Embedded SPAC Dilution

The article mentions 3 other forms of dilution:

- SPAC sponsors pay themselves with "promote" of 25% of SPAC IPO proceeds

- Redeeming shareholders receive 11.6% annual return (incentive to redeem)

- SPACs pay u/w fee on IPO proceeds
Read 7 tweets
30 Dec 20
Rightmove (RMV) is one of the decade’s top-returning stocks.

Investors have generated a +1,500% total return!

Studying the Super Stocks of the past helps us spot future Super Stocks today.

Here’s a thread on what made RMV a network effect monster 👇
macro-ops.com/super-stock-ca…
2/ Biz Description & IPO

RMV is a property portal in the UK. They allow RE agents, homeowners & homebuilders to list their home for sale on their website (think Zillow).

Before IPO, RMV offered initial shares to its customers (RE agents and developers).

That’s confidence.
3/ Owning Their Market

In 2004 RMV was the largest property list site in the UK.

They commanded 79% market share in total pageviews.

24/25 top RE agents listed homes ONLY on RMV

25/25 top UK home dev. Listed on RMV

82% of UK homebuyers that bought on the internet used RMV
Read 13 tweets
21 Dec 20
[THREAD]

Bill Miller (@B3_MillerValue) is one of this generation's best investors.

There's 3 things we can learn from him:

1. Free cash flow above all else
2. Disregard investment style labels
3. Buy at points of lowest market expectations

Let's go!

macro-ops.com/bill-miller-le…
1/ FCF Is King

A biz is worth the sum of its future FCFs discounted back to the present.

Miller examines things like:

- LT economic model
- Quality of assets
- Management
- Capital allocation record

He wants to buy >6% FCF yields.

Important: Growth < COC = bad investment
2/ No Labels Investment Approach

The thing I love about Miller the most is his disdain for investment labels.

It's not Growth vs. Value for him. It's paying less than what a biz is worth. Period.

In doing this, Miller avoids investing in value traps because "they're cheap"
Read 6 tweets

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