Assets move from uptrends to downtrends, sentiment changes from bullish to bearish & vice versa.
Unless you're dollar-cost averaging, the start point of valuations is VERY important.
Gold has done very well over the last 20 years, but very poorly over the last 10!
$GLD $GDX
Unless you're dollar-cost averaging, the start point of valuations is VERY important.
Gold has done very well over the last 20 years, but very poorly over the last 10!
$GLD $GDX
On the other hand, US stocks did poorly during the 2000-2010 period, while they've done great over the last 10 years.
Furthermore, the US stocks returned 5.9% inc dividends from the year 2000 until Feb 2020 (before the Covid crash).
Even bonds outperformed them. $SPY $QQQ
Furthermore, the US stocks returned 5.9% inc dividends from the year 2000 until Feb 2020 (before the Covid crash).
Even bonds outperformed them. $SPY $QQQ
Whether it's private or public equity, core real estate or developments — valuations matter.
You make your money on the BUY.
"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." — Warren Buffett
You make your money on the BUY.
"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." — Warren Buffett
Today, the US stock market is extremely expensive. By some measures, it is the MOST expensive in history. By others, it is in 95th to 99th percentile of extreme valuation.
When you average all the valuation inputs, our model suggests this decade into 2030 will produce a -4% p.a.
When you average all the valuation inputs, our model suggests this decade into 2030 will produce a -4% p.a.
This happens across asset classes.
In 2007, Emerging Markets reached a book value of 3X. The subsequent 13 years resulted in dead money.
Now, just as everyone gives on on fast-growing EM economies, they are entering a new bull market.
Could they outperform in the 2020s? $EEM
In 2007, Emerging Markets reached a book value of 3X. The subsequent 13 years resulted in dead money.
Now, just as everyone gives on on fast-growing EM economies, they are entering a new bull market.
Could they outperform in the 2020s? $EEM
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