As I see it, it means nothing much more than the actual reach on Twitter of these politicians is less than it seems
Have they bough followers? I doubt it. The problem is so prevalent in German politics that I doubt they all have
And I have 13% fakes, and I can assure you I have never bought a single one - because *why would I*? It would bring me nothing, and honesty is the best policy
/ends
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
As well as it being a story about 🛤 (and I often write about 🚅), the will-Eurostar-go-bankrupt discussion is one about access, privilege, public service and competition, and even how 🇬🇧 sees itself
Beware, this is a bit of a ranty 🧵
First of all, 🇬🇧 has just one genuine high speed rail service: Eurostar
It has one high-ish speed commuter service that uses the same tracks: Southeastern Javelin
That by definition makes 🇬🇧 rather different to 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 etc. where there are domestic high speed services
Then to Eurostar itself...
The service *was* a cooperation between the state railways of 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 🇬🇧, and when 🇬🇧 rail was privatised, the 40% 🇬🇧 share was owned by the British state until they sold it in 2015 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar_…
Headline numbers - chances to be Chancellor Candidate
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%
Why is Laschet the slight favourite?
Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder
So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.
This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.
1/20
At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches
That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail
2/20
Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing
Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future
The key line: "Zieht er [Röttgen] seine Kandidatur für den Vorsitz durch, steigen die Chancen auf einen Sieg von Friedrich Merz."
"If he [Röttgen] continues his candidacy for leader, the chances of a victory for Friedrich Merz increase."
2/10
I'm pretty sure that's *not* right.
Why?
Because of the process
If Merz, Laschet and Röttgen were up against each other in a first past the post, 1 round election, it would be so. Merz would likely get +/- 40%, Röttgen and Laschet +/- 30% each, Merz would win
Meanwhile @JeremyCliffe for New Statesman puts all of what's happening now into the wider context of how Merkel changed the CDU's voter coalition, and examines whether that can hold now