Jon Worth Profile picture
19 Jan, 6 tweets, 3 min read
A friend asked me: how can @ArminLaschet have 108k followers on Twitter, yet each of his tweets gets so little engagement?

My answer: probably followed by loads of bots, as it the case for many German politicians - see my blog post from 2017:
jonworth.eu/german-politic…
So I checked it...

The tool I used then - Pluragraph - does not exist. So I have run the tests with an alternative, SparkToro

Result: Laschet has 47.3% fakes
Source: sparktoro.com/fake-followers…
To compare, Katrin Göring-Eckardt has 57%
Source: sparktoro.com/fake-followers…
I am not a German politician... but this is my score: 13%
Source: sparktoro.com/fake-followers…
What does this mean?

As I see it, it means nothing much more than the actual reach on Twitter of these politicians is less than it seems

Have they bough followers? I doubt it. The problem is so prevalent in German politics that I doubt they all have
And I have 13% fakes, and I can assure you I have never bought a single one - because *why would I*? It would bring me nothing, and honesty is the best policy

/ends

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More from @jonworth

20 Jan
As well as it being a story about 🛤 (and I often write about 🚅), the will-Eurostar-go-bankrupt discussion is one about access, privilege, public service and competition, and even how 🇬🇧 sees itself

Beware, this is a bit of a ranty 🧵
First of all, 🇬🇧 has just one genuine high speed rail service: Eurostar

It has one high-ish speed commuter service that uses the same tracks: Southeastern Javelin

That by definition makes 🇬🇧 rather different to 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 etc. where there are domestic high speed services
Then to Eurostar itself...

The service *was* a cooperation between the state railways of 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 🇬🇧, and when 🇬🇧 rail was privatised, the 40% 🇬🇧 share was owned by the British state until they sold it in 2015
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar_…
Read 15 tweets
16 Jan
I am having one of those Oatmeal printers-are-sent-from-hell days

theoatmeal.com/comics/printers
I have a Brother MFC-J4510DW mid range multi function printer, and it feels like it's been on its last legs more or less since I bought it...

It doesn't always turn on, and black blotches appear on print outs

support.brother.com/g/b/producttop…
I'd have a go at repairing it, but even iFixit has no guides for any similar model... and I am not sure even what it is that's wrong
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
So the CDU has gone for Laschet as Party Leader

That means Röttgen and Merz will not become Chancellor Candidate, but Laschet or Söder, and possibly Spahn, still can...

🆕 #CDUVorsitz V4.0.0 diagram now out!
Headline numbers - chances to be Chancellor Candidate
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%
Why is Laschet the slight favourite?

Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
OK then.

So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.

This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.

1/20
At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches

That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail

2/20
Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing

Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future

3/20
Read 20 tweets
15 Jan
What's the biggest error in all the reporting about #CDUvorsitz?

People not understanding the process

This piece for example:
n-tv.de/politik/Norber…

1/10
The key line: "Zieht er [Röttgen] seine Kandidatur für den Vorsitz durch, steigen die Chancen auf einen Sieg von Friedrich Merz."

"If he [Röttgen] continues his candidacy for leader, the chances of a victory for Friedrich Merz increase."

2/10
I'm pretty sure that's *not* right.

Why?

Because of the process

If Merz, Laschet and Röttgen were up against each other in a first past the post, 1 round election, it would be so. Merz would likely get +/- 40%, Röttgen and Laschet +/- 30% each, Merz would win

3/10
Read 10 tweets
15 Jan
So 🇩🇪 CDU chooses its new party leader #CDUvorsitz *tomorrow morning*

This 🧵 gives an overview of the articles *in English* about the process

I've written a summary of the entire process for @ukandeu here: ukandeu.ac.uk/angela-merkel-…

1/8
With a focus on this weekend's decisions, this by @philipoltermann for The Guardian is a good starting point

theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…

2/8
Meanwhile @JeremyCliffe for New Statesman puts all of what's happening now into the wider context of how Merkel changed the CDU's voter coalition, and examines whether that can hold now

newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…

3/8
Read 9 tweets

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