Jon Worth Profile picture
20 Jan, 15 tweets, 3 min read
As well as it being a story about 🛤 (and I often write about 🚅), the will-Eurostar-go-bankrupt discussion is one about access, privilege, public service and competition, and even how 🇬🇧 sees itself

Beware, this is a bit of a ranty 🧵
First of all, 🇬🇧 has just one genuine high speed rail service: Eurostar

It has one high-ish speed commuter service that uses the same tracks: Southeastern Javelin

That by definition makes 🇬🇧 rather different to 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 etc. where there are domestic high speed services
Then to Eurostar itself...

The service *was* a cooperation between the state railways of 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 🇬🇧, and when 🇬🇧 rail was privatised, the 40% 🇬🇧 share was owned by the British state until they sold it in 2015
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar_…
The essential point however: Eurostar - in terms of its structure - is still run as something akin to a cooperation between state owned railways, although it is a private company

And - importantly - it faces *no competition* from other rail firms
Which then leads us to the problems of access and public service...

As the years have passed, so Eurostar has become a more and more premium service. Service levels have been reduced and prices increased. It is a de luxe product. It's often cheaper to fly instead.
But how would you do anything about that?

You could introduce competition - italo vs. Trenitalia on the Milano-Roma 🇮🇹 route has driven up quality and driven down prices.

Operationally that would be hard - there are few trains in operation cleared to run through the tunnel
Or you go back to the public service ethos - low cost rail for the masses - see how SNCF has offered OUIGO and Thalys IZY to cater to the lower cost market in 🇫🇷
The problem for Eurostar is neither of these is on offer - because of the respective blind spots on the 🇫🇷 and 🇬🇧 sides

🇬🇧 would be fine for there to be competition on the route, but when Deutsche Bahn was rumoured to be considering this, the onerous passport controls...
... were what put them off. 🇬🇧 insists passengers are controlled before they board. There's no viable way to do that in Frankfurt(Main), Köln or Liège

Meanwhile 🇫🇷 doesn't want competition. SNCF still owns 55% of Eurostar, and until COVID hit it was a nice little earner.
Monopoly operator. No debate about public service. Rake in the cash! What's not to like?

In short: 🇬🇧 would like competition, but their border paranoia prevents it
🇫🇷 don't want competition, but are 🤷‍♂️ about the border issue

So Eurostar is essentially stuck
And that then leads to the whining in the British political debate - that there should be no need to bail out Eurostar as it's only used by the privileged anyway

NO! Because if those people are not taking 🚅 they are going to ✈️ instead. It's not as if the trips won't happen!
And yes, Eurostar is too expensive, and yes, Eurostar matters much more to London and the South East than to the rest of the UK - but the infrastructure is there, the trains exist - make the most of it post-COVID!
The whole joyous ethos of the Channel Tunnel's construction was to allow more 🇬🇧🇫🇷 travel, and to open that up for *more* people. Where has that spirit gone in British politics?

The reaction to Eurostar's woes shouldn't be "it's just for the privileged 🤷‍♂️ ditch it!"...
... but "make this high speed rail for everyone!"

It strikes me that the idea that international travel ought to be an aspiration for anyone from the UK - and that they ought to be able to do this by train - has been completely lost.
Whether this can be solved via competition or some more public service orientated offer needs to be debated. But Eurostar cannot be left to fail - it is far too important for that!

/ends

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More from @jonworth

19 Jan
A friend asked me: how can @ArminLaschet have 108k followers on Twitter, yet each of his tweets gets so little engagement?

My answer: probably followed by loads of bots, as it the case for many German politicians - see my blog post from 2017:
jonworth.eu/german-politic…
So I checked it...

The tool I used then - Pluragraph - does not exist. So I have run the tests with an alternative, SparkToro

Result: Laschet has 47.3% fakes
Source: sparktoro.com/fake-followers…
To compare, Katrin Göring-Eckardt has 57%
Source: sparktoro.com/fake-followers…
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
I am having one of those Oatmeal printers-are-sent-from-hell days

theoatmeal.com/comics/printers
I have a Brother MFC-J4510DW mid range multi function printer, and it feels like it's been on its last legs more or less since I bought it...

It doesn't always turn on, and black blotches appear on print outs

support.brother.com/g/b/producttop…
I'd have a go at repairing it, but even iFixit has no guides for any similar model... and I am not sure even what it is that's wrong
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
So the CDU has gone for Laschet as Party Leader

That means Röttgen and Merz will not become Chancellor Candidate, but Laschet or Söder, and possibly Spahn, still can...

🆕 #CDUVorsitz V4.0.0 diagram now out!
Headline numbers - chances to be Chancellor Candidate
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%
Why is Laschet the slight favourite?

Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
OK then.

So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.

This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.

1/20
At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches

That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail

2/20
Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing

Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future

3/20
Read 20 tweets
15 Jan
What's the biggest error in all the reporting about #CDUvorsitz?

People not understanding the process

This piece for example:
n-tv.de/politik/Norber…

1/10
The key line: "Zieht er [Röttgen] seine Kandidatur für den Vorsitz durch, steigen die Chancen auf einen Sieg von Friedrich Merz."

"If he [Röttgen] continues his candidacy for leader, the chances of a victory for Friedrich Merz increase."

2/10
I'm pretty sure that's *not* right.

Why?

Because of the process

If Merz, Laschet and Röttgen were up against each other in a first past the post, 1 round election, it would be so. Merz would likely get +/- 40%, Röttgen and Laschet +/- 30% each, Merz would win

3/10
Read 10 tweets
15 Jan
So 🇩🇪 CDU chooses its new party leader #CDUvorsitz *tomorrow morning*

This 🧵 gives an overview of the articles *in English* about the process

I've written a summary of the entire process for @ukandeu here: ukandeu.ac.uk/angela-merkel-…

1/8
With a focus on this weekend's decisions, this by @philipoltermann for The Guardian is a good starting point

theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…

2/8
Meanwhile @JeremyCliffe for New Statesman puts all of what's happening now into the wider context of how Merkel changed the CDU's voter coalition, and examines whether that can hold now

newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…

3/8
Read 9 tweets

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