Thread by @megtirrell

I enjoy the "Mean Girls" parallel of the title of this HBR session about to start: "When Dr Fauci Thinks 'Normal' Will Happen" linkedin.com/video/live/urn…

HBR host notes Dr Fauci got his second dose of Moderna vaccine today

Fauci: If we can get 75-80% of the population of this country fully vaccinated over a period of several months, we will have an umbrella or cloak of herd immunity that would completely turn around the dynamics of the outbreak.

Fauci: I believe we can attain that [herd immunity], if we do it well, by early to mid Fall. Pres-Elect Biden's plan to get 100M people vaccinated in first 100 days is entirely feasible. Thereafter literally have an open season of vaccine.

Fauci: If we do that efficiently in April, May, June, July, Aug, we should have that degree of protection that could get us back to some form of normality. But we've also got to do it on a global scale. Bc if there's an outbreak anywhere it endangers people everywhere.

Fauci: If we do it right, by the time you get to summer, you could have people in the stands at baseball games. Maybe not sitting right next to each other, but some degree of fan participation in an outdoor sport like baseball by the time we get to summer.

Fauci on vaccine supply: I had a conversation 2 nights ago & yesterday AM with General Perna. Based on Moderna & Pfizer alone, doses anticipated to come in Feb, March, April, then hopefully will have good degree of efficacy from J&J - I think we'll be able to do that.

Fauci: Even though we know you get some degree of temporary protection from 1st dose it's not sufficient at all to protect you to the level results of trial have told us - 94-95% efficacy.

Fauci: I made a commitment to myself 36.5 years ago that I would always tell the truth. And if that meant a president wouldn't want me around anymore, that's ok. Thus far, that has worked well with me.

Says not being confrontational or hostile has helped.

Fauci on conflicts of fact w Pres Trump: "Although it's been somewhat awkward - it's not a happy day when you have to get up on national TV and contradict something the president says - I take no pleasure in that at all."

Fauci says he'd be very enthusiastic about direct-acting antiviral drugs that could be taken by mouth as early as possible in the course of the disease. References work in HIV, echoing @nytimes @BySheilaKaplan profile of @DavidAKesslerMD & plans leading Biden Covid science.

Dr Fauci is asked how he gets it all done: "To put it in the words of some people colloquially, you just suck it up and do it."

Fauci: It likely will take at least a year or two to vaccinate the world. It's not going to happen completely in this calendar year - there just won't be enough vaccine produced to do that.

Fauci: I would have loved to have been totally knowledgeable on Jan. 21 about what was ahead of us. "You've gotta act on the science as you know it at the time. When the evidence changes, you've gotta be humble enough & nimble enough to change policy and change recommendations."

Fauci, asked if he's changed his habits since March: "My life is pretty uni-dimensional." You wake up at 5am, work like crazy til late in the night. Only things is about an hour of exercise daily.

Fauci, asked if there is enough vaccine supply for people's 2nd doses, says 2nd doses get priority over people getting 1st dose.

Fauci on what happens if you don't get second dose: Risk is you're not going to get 94-95% protected, and durability of response is unclear. You can miss it by a day or two, but when you're talking about not getting it or missing by several months, "that's not good."