Thread by @stevehubbard

So, Bhavdip Sanghavi (@bhavdip143), profiteer of the pump-and-dump or stock picking guru? Read on to find out… #tldr #hesaguru

PREAMBLE: I follow a few traders and investors, the first being Assad Tannous (@AsennaWealth). His posting of trading setups & willingness to explain his process was intriguing. As a former accountant, I can do fundamental analyses all day long to pick the investments I like.

What I lacked was a way to get the timing right, meaning potential 30-50% returns instead came in at 10-20%. A technical trader sharing his insight and expertise, and watching the banter between him and other traders, was an opportunity to learn and improve for free. #thanksassad

Said banter identified others to follow & learn from. For example, Larry Tenatrelli’s (@LMT978) moving average based strategy is beautiful in its simplicity, and it saved me from the pain of sizeable drawdowns in March 2020. #thankslarry

A more recent follow is Stan (@StanH2443) who’s clean & simple style offers the easiest to follow charts I’ve seen. I haven’t researched & don’t follow his Wyckoff approach, but his frequent postings include a wealth of information for anyone wanting to improve. #thanksstan

And then there’s Bhavdip (@bhavdip143). I noticed his handle amongst those I follow about a year ago, referencing returns in the multiples (aka bhags), not fractions thereof. First thought? Bullshit. Hence I followed, watched, and kept track of his results. #impossibleisnothing

Said results were both outstanding and consistent, but I still had doubts. Time to research properly. Curiosity needed to be satisfied. Fortunately Bhav includes more info in his tweets than anyone else, making analysis easy. Five questions I had:

1. Are his tweets accurate? Do the entry prices exist and have the returns occurred? Not much point researching further if he’s sprouting crap.

2. Any evidence of timing? Twitter is littered with geniuses celebrating bhags after the event. Did he announce the trade before the move, or is there evidence of a transaction occurring?

3. How is he achieving his results: IPOs, capital raises or trades? Most cap raises since April 2020 have been lucrative. If IPOs, how’s he picking the companies? And if trades, what’s his strategy and how does it differ from mine?

4. Over what timeframe? How long is he holding, or did he hammer the buy button on 23 March ’20 and is now cashing in his fortuitous timing?

5. How successful is he? Win/loss record. Calculated, not guesstimated.

METHOD: To begin, I periodically scraped his account using @Octoparse, assembling every tweet, reply, re-tweet and quote in chronological order in an Excel spreadsheet. #estalking

First tweet captured was 17 July ’20, last was 2 November, for about 5,400 in total. Using conditional formatting I then highlighted every cell featuring a ‘$’ symbol preceding a 3-5 letter ASX code.

I added two columns to spreadsheet: one to denote I had read the ASX code, another to record I had actioned the code. Reading meant I had documented every single ASX code he mentioned in a Google Sheets spreadsheet.

Said codes underpinned the structure of my analysis table. Formulas were added to auto-populate company names, current share prices & market caps. Sector information, unfortunately, had to be researched and inputted manually. #learntocodesteve

Shoutout to the team @MarketIndexAU. It’s where I source all my required data. Their website is what @ASX should have been & the beta is version is a triumph. #welldone #loveyourwork

Now, here’s my spreadsheet for you to download and peruse. If you want to print it out, note that it’s sized for A3 paper & Officeworks charge $1.30 per page for colour printing in A3. #blessyouofficeworks dropbox.com/s/kogqnx5utvpy…

I could spend the next 32 tweets defining each column and documenting each formula I used, but that would take 32 tweets (as per my drafting of this thread). Nope. Figure it out yourself. #helpme #helpyou

I will, however, comment on the ‘First Investment/Mention’ entries. ‘Date’ refers to when Bhav first tweeted about a company. ‘Price’ is therefore the closing price the day he first tweeted about the company. #duh

But ‘Date’ & ‘Price’ changes if Bhav tweets his purchase date or cost base, the latter allowing to me to determine if he participated in an IPO, CR or on-market buy (assuming he didn’t tweet such info).

Remember my earlier tweet about adding two columns to my spreadsheet, the second denoting I had actioned the ASX code? Here comes the time consuming part.

In Excel I used the Data -> Filter function to show all tweets per ASX code, and I then read every tweet to find the date of his first tweet, cost base, investment strategy, and (not included in analysis) his rationale for buying. #excelgamestrong

This info was then used to determine if there was a post-investment low, the subsequent high, on which days either move might have occurred and so on. A shit tonne of researching and manual entry.

MAJOR CAVEAT #1: My spreadsheet is not dollar and cent correct, nor date perfect. I normally try to work at that accuracy, irrespective of how long it takes (ask @chrisbarbanti), but this was an exercise to satisfy my curiosity. #sorrychris

It was never intended to be shared with anyone, let alone made public. Hence I budgeted a couple of days free time to complete, but it took almost a fortnight. Thus my first week’s ‘Subsequent High’ entries may have been Trumped whilst I was entering all the data. #maga

MAJOR CAVEAT #2: My spreadsheet doesn’t include Options. A lot of cap raises came with free options attached, which Bhav received and seems to have profited (greatly) from. Don’t, therefore, assume this is an accurate depiction of his performance. #CRO #ESR

FYI #1: Grey shaded rows denote to ignore maximum return as it occurs on first or second float days (i.e. ‘Days’ = 0,1,2) and few, if any, could have secured those outcomes.

FYI #2: When insufficient info in tweets to determine strategy or cost base, yellow shaded rows reflect date and price my strategy signalled to enter trade. #gosteve

THOUGHTS #1: Didn’t expect 106 investments, nor the near equal distribution of IPO (31), CR (29) and trade (46). Staggered by 105 of 106 winners, although Bhav tweeted 12 Aug he was down $NML $1AD $ODM $RML $CAD. #honestybuildstrust #trustislife

THOUGHTS #2: Assumed bhags mainly via IPO as reward for risk & locking funds for months, but trades equally as profitable. I dislike IPOs and avoid, as reading prospectuses not my forte. Results require focus first few trading days, or extend timeframe.

THOUGHTS #3: If you want bhags, expected timeframes should be measured in months ($HYD $RHY) if not years ($LRS $EMV $HTG), although longer does not guarantee greater returns ($DOU). #procrastination #ftw

THOUGHTS #4: Spreadsheet allows you to filter and sort data by different columns. Interesting when sorted by sector for best returns, and it highlights what’s missing. #banks #diversifiedfinancials #insurance #property #utilities #transport #food

GUARANTEED: I could have retired had I spent my time to copying Bhav’s trades instead of analysing his tweets. So why do it? The old adage of giving a man a fish versus teaching him how to. #dobothidiot

If someone successful shares their ideas, experiences & knowledge, better yourself. Unfortunately that requires effort & sacrifice, and involves frustration & financial losses.

Much easier to ask Bhav for tips, entry points, thoughts & then copy. But you’re Kamala’d if he gets suspended (#boo) or banned (#freebhavdip), and the traders say don’t follow & don’t trade based on tweets & HC crap for a reason. #heelsup

This leads to pump-and-dump snark by muppets too lazy to analyse his numbers. Much easier to denigrate someone down to your level than to better yourself to match their success. #Preach

So congratulations @bhavdip143 on your fantastic 2020. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience publicly. And best of luck for 2021 and beyond. #gobirdfeedgang