First full day in office for the new Biden team, and those looking at foreign policy are greeted by the UK setting off a needless diplomatic spat with the EU by repeating a move from the Trump playbook.
Hell of a first impression that is giving.
An ally already not fully trusted by the Biden administration because of threats to his beloved Ireland through the Internal Market Bill decides to make a show against the EU on his first full day in office.
Serious questions have to be asked of this UK government decision.
Quite so. Good relationships with the EU and Member States are essential to the future of the UK and few should disagree whatever their politics.
Jeez, it does not matter any more to the UK why the EU wants diplomatic status. It just matters whether we want to get on with our neighbours or insult them all, and in doing so also upset our supposed oldest ally, the US. This isn't particularly difficult.
See also: the UK's proposed tilt to the Indo-Pacific aka running away from those who don't understand us gap year, but for a whole country rather than a moody teenager.
Or, y'know, we could try to get on with the neighbours, and do some of the easy stuff they want?
And incidentally refusing the EU's request on diplomatic status in London has practical consequences. When we want to talk about musician visas or whatever we'll first have to hear this. And it won't be a quid pro quo, it will be the UK has to change then we can talk.
The fuller argument about why this EU Ambassador argument is so potentially damaging to UK-Biden relations - because he wants to develop strong relations with EU and UK, and disputes between us will be a problem to that
One of the most frustrating things about current UK trade and foreign policy is the mistakes are so elementary, and coming from not hearing clear messages from partners. FCDO not hearing, not passing on, or being ignored by politicians?
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The choice made by the UK government was for friction with the EU over any kind of regulatory alignment. This is the natural consequence. It is a big problem for the country that neither government nor opposition will admit it.
In particular Keir Starmer saying no case for major renegotiation of the EU deal needs to be reversed if Labour is to have any credibility on the issue. It is normal politics for an opposition to say government did not get a good deal, and true in this case.
If Labour can't say they will get a better deal with the EU than the government it is hard to know what their purpose is as an opposition. Yes difficult politics, red wall etc, but you can't just say nothing because being afraid isn't a great look either.
Bad news now, but there's a bigger theme missed - which is how much UK exports to the EU are now at the mercy of regulatory changes over which we'll have no direct influence, but should be trying to lobby.
I don't think we have understood yet as a country the change that has happened. This isn't predominantly teething troubles, but an entirely new trading relationship. And that talking tough about this may make us feel better but will achieve precisely nothing.
You can tell the government hasn't understood the changing relationship with the EU, since they have opted to prioritise pointless diplomatic gesture politics over the need to influence the very large market next door accounting for around 50% of our trade.
"One story proves I was right and aren't I a brave rebel for standing against the crowd in predicting this (even if most stories go the other way)" twitter is among the worst of all.
Brexit redux...
Winners (e.g. customs specialists)...
Losers (e.g. seafood sellers)...
More trade barriers = (all else being equal) more losers than winners...
Teething troubles and longer term adjustments...
This isn't difficult.
June last year. Turned out the PM didn't want to be the man who closed Nissan. And gave up asks on level playing field and fishing to protect it. Those threats to walk away? Turned out to be hollow. As the EU always predicted.
In how many ways does it need to be said that it is the UK government's choice to go for a hard Brexit with minimal regulatory alignment and maximum checks?
Also the choice of the UK government to fail to understand that paperwork was the inevitable outcome of their Brexit, and not to give enough time for adjustment to business, which they are now having to compensate business for.
All exacerbated by the Prime Minister's negotiating style of talking tough in the media (supposedly threatening the other side), over promising to domestic audiences ('no PM would...') and then folding completely to get a deal (Northern Ireland, fish).
Nearly a day into office and Presaident Biden still hasn't fixed global trade policy. By the end of day perhaps?
Except that as I write here, some of the issues he has to fix have been outstanding for 25 years. This is going to be tough. borderlex.net/2021/01/20/per…
US trade policy actually changed surprisingly little in the last four years, even if operation was more threatening and vulgar. Change of substance under Biden, either of the aim to set global standards, or the protectionism seems a big ask. Style will change though.
Which remains a reason to believe there may be a UK-US deal. Yes there will be an attempt to bridge US-EU differences, and I hope they work. But I'm sceptical, and if they don't, a UK-US deal could at least deliver a symbolic and easy win for the administration.
Right, some hard core trade content follows. The publication of UNCTAD's "Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020" contains many useful nuggets that should be guiding good policy makers globally... 1/ unctad.org/webflyer/key-s…
We start with an analysis on the signing of the ASEAN / East Asia / Australia / NZ trade agreement RCEP late last year. Turns out that just as in Europe regional trade is already a significant part of total trade for most members (note Japan, Korea, China exceptions) 2/
Next, tariffs. What tariffs are actually being paid on goods trade given preferential trade deals and actual trade? For developed countries, not a lot. There's a reason that UK-EU tariff free deal was the minimum we had to expect. Note rise in 2019 due to US tariff wars... 3/