Last week, I posted some results from the ISCAP general-population panel showing a 2016-2020 pro-Trump shift among English-speaking Latino respondents--but no corresponding shift in partisanship.
With respect to levels, it's key to note that English-speaking Latinos in that general-population panel were markedly cooler on Trump even in October '20 than White Americans--36 vs. 48 on a 0-100 scale.
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Still, with @EfrenPoliPsy and @cherylrkaiser, I collected additional panel data 2016-2018 via GfK/Ipsos tracking a different, population-based sample of Asian Americans and Latinos. This panel includes interviews in English and Spanish.
Are there shifts in 2016-18?
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Short answer: yes.
In our 2016 waves, Latino respondents surveyed in Spanish were *much* cooler on Trump than either Asian American respondents or Latino respondents answering in English.
But by October 2018, the gap is gone. Still net negative, but not by as much.
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Even 2016-18, views on Trump soften among our Latino respondents surveyed in Spanish.
Note, there is little comparable movement in party identification.
So the shift--whether driven by incumbency, changing salience of immigration, other factors--may be Trump-specific.
/end
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With @ProfHansNoel, I've been doing research that may shed some light on divides within the Senate GOP.
In 2016, we asked groups of 500 GOP and 500 Dem activists via YouGov to tell us who in a pair of senators was more conservative in 3 online surveys throughout the year.
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This is a fairly challenging task, since respondents could be asked about any of their party's senators (or centrist out-party senators) at the time. And let's just say not everyone has an opinion about every single senator.
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We then used a Bradley-Terry model to generate one-dimensional "perceived ideology scores."
Here are the perceived ideology scores (y-axis) by DW-NOMINATE's first dimension (x-axis).
Was Trump's 2016 victory driven more by turnout or persuasion? That question shadowed the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. In this new @monkeycageblog piece I try to answer it, drawing on new research with @seth_j_hill and Greg Huber.
That lets us make figures like this, which plots the GOP's gain on the y-axis by decile of precinct turnout stability (x-axis). Higher stability=more of the same voters in 2012, 2016.
Shift to GOP is *larger* on average in more stable precincts. Suggests persuasion is impt. 3/n
I've been fortunate to be able to track the political attitudes of a set of American adults recruited by Knowledge Networks using off-line methods before 2008. I've repeatedly surveyed these folks, most recently via Ipsos 10/7-10/22/20. n=1,131. Some initial results.
(By the way, if you are curious for some previous work using this panel, check out these @FiveThirtyEight articles:)
This is *not* a representative sample of the current electorate. Since this is a long-running panel, the youngest respondents are now 30. And it has been subject to attrition. Here I report unweighted results.
In early April, @spbhanot and I conducted a survey via @Civiqs to look at how online Pennsylvanians were responding to COVID-19. Now, @abuttenheim joins us for a second wave with many of the same respondents to see what those views look like (May 30-June 2, n=2,045).
In early April, 59% said "We must continue to stay home for as long as necessary, even if the economy suffers." By early June, that was down to 43%, with 46% instead saying "We must reopen the economy as soon as possible, even if more people will get sick." (Had been 27%.) 2/n
I teamed up with @abuttenheim and @spbhanot to administer an online survey via @civiqs of 1,912 Pennsylvania adults April 4th-8th focusing on residents' responses to coronavirus, and am going to tweet some of the topline results in this thread. 1/n
When asked about trade-offs between re-opening the economy and keeping it closed to prevent the spread of the virus, 59% said we should "stay home for as long as necessary" while 27% said we should re-open the economy as soon as possible, even if more people get sick." 2/n
On the economy question, there is a stark divide between Republicans and Democrats. The percentage of Democrats saying we should re-open the economy as soon as possible? Just 4%. Republicans? 49%. Independents come in at 29%.