Exactly one year ago today, @CDCgov confirmed the first case of 2019-nCoV in the U.S.

24M cases later, what are the most important lessons learned, about the virus itself & our response?

10 experts shared their thoughts. A few in a 🧵next: cnbc.com/2021/01/21/cov…
.@DrPaulOffit:

“It is not the winter respiratory virus it was billed to be; it’s far more far-reaching and damaging than that.”
.@CarlosdelRio7:

"More airborne than we originally thought, less surface than we originally thought."

(Remember Clorox-wiping your groceries?)
.@jeremyfaust:

"Asymptomatic spread in some and deadly disease in others is the shortest summary I can come up with as to why we have such a crisis on our hands."
.@DrLeanaWen:

“There is still a degree of magical thinking when it comes to people we know and love who are not in our household. We think, ‘Well, this person looks fine; I know them, I trust them that they wouldn’t engage in high-risk behaviors, so I’m going to see them.’”
.@mtosterholm:

“Think of 300,000 versus 32,000" cases a day. “In a period of April to January, we became numb to that. Each one of these is a shifting baseline, and suddenly what was happening doesn’t seem so bad.”
.@meganranney:

“When we don’t pay attention to the drivers of people’s behavior, we will fail. Even with good science.”
@llborio:

"Leadership matters and it must start at the top. A nation divided can’t tackle a pandemic. Our government, vast and complex, has tremendous capabilities, but doesn’t organize itself.”
Moncef Slaoui:

"We must never again politicize public health issues. I am sure this has cost tens of thousands of lives.”
.@ScottGottliebMD:

“The refusal of CDC to pivot early to engage commercial labs and commercial test kits left us blind to the early spread. The virus was able to get deeply rooted in our communities. It was a historic failure.”
Walter Reed's Kayvon Modjarrad:

“What strikes me most is how much we still don’t know... In science, the first major step toward solving one of nature’s puzzles is understanding how large the puzzle is and what questions to ask. We’re only now reaching that point.”

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More from @megtirrell

21 Jan
Dr Fauci in the ⁦@WhiteHouse⁩ briefing room
Fauci: If you look at the 7-day avg of cases, right now it looks like it may be plateauing.

But you have to be careful it’s not an artifact of slowing down after the holidays.

“I’m sort of getting deja vu standing up here. I said something like this almost a year ago.”
Fauci: There are always lags so please be aware of that - cases, weeks later hospitalizations, weeks later deaths.

Cases may be plateauing or coming down at the same time hospitalizations and deaths are going up.
Read 11 tweets
21 Jan
Biden signing 10 executive orders and other directives today on #covid19. Here they are per @WhiteHouse fact-sheet: 🧵

1. EO directing agencies to fix supply of PPE, materials for testing & vaccines, including through Defense Production Act
2. Presidential Memo directing FEMA to increase federal reimbursement to 100% (from 75%) of cost of National Guard personnel & emergency supplies; restoring full reimbursement for eligible costs to support safe school reopening through FEMA Disaster Relief Fund
3. EO to establish Pandemic Testing Board; increase testing capacity by directing use of Defense Production Act; promote surge capacity of testing in the US; onshore test manufacturing, expand public health workforce, support #covid19 screening for schools;ensure equitable access
Read 10 tweets
19 Jan
I enjoy the "Mean Girls" parallel of the title of this HBR session about to start: "When Dr Fauci Thinks 'Normal' Will Happen" linkedin.com/video/live/urn…
HBR host notes Dr Fauci got his second dose of Moderna vaccine today
Fauci: If we can get 75-80% of the population of this country fully vaccinated over a period of several months, we will have an umbrella or cloak of herd immunity that would completely turn around the dynamics of the outbreak.
Read 17 tweets
16 Jan
Still confused about the 2nd dose vaccine supply? Me too, but I think this is what happened: 🧵

Let’s go chronologically. Last Thursday, governors wrote a letter to @SecAzar requesting second doses not be held in reserve and instead immediately be made available:
2. Friday, CNN reported the Biden team planned to do just that:
3. Tuesday @SecAzar said OWS would make the change as well.

Azar: "We can now ship all of the doses, that had been held in physical reserve with second doses being supplied by doses coming off of manufacturing lines with quality control going forward."

Read 18 tweets
7 Jan
.@NYGovCuomo : "If the UK spread catches on in NY, hospitalization rate goes up, hospital staff gets sick - then we have a real problem. Then we're at shutdown again."

The problem with capacity now is staff shortage, he says. "We have beds, we have equipment." Primarily nurses.
Cuomo: Very worried about UK strain. Still just 1 case confirmed in NY, but believe we have more. Notes spread in UK only took about 3 weeks.

Says this concern + staff shortages at hospitals is why such a push for faster vaccination of health-care workers.
Cuomo: "We have seen a dramatic increase" in performance of vaccinations.

Were doing 10k per day for first several wks

On Monday, went to 30k

Tuesday, a little over 30k

Wednesday, went to 50k

And today going to be in excess of 50k

"That's 5 times the rate they were doing."
Read 11 tweets
6 Jan
J&J’s CEO, Alex Gorsky, on events in Washington: Image
.@steveubl of @PhRMA on events in Washington: Image
Pfizer CEO @AlbertBourla letter to employees on events in Washington: Image
Read 4 tweets

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