You may have heard this metaphor before, but the details are fun to consider. It also helps explain Bitcoin's path to scaling up to handle the entire world's transactions.
A thread...
In 2019, 802M containers were shipped.
A large container ship holds 8,000 containers. If an average one holds 4,000 containers, this means ~200k container ship journeys per year.
There is 1,280 cubic feet of space in each container. That's enough to comfortably fit a car.
But usually, a container carries more than one item. The space is large enough for 100 washing machines, or 12,000 stuffed animals.
The cost to ship one container from Shanghai to Los Angeles is ~$1,200.
That means $1,200 per car, or $0.1 per stuffed animal.
Similarly, the fee for a Bitcoin transaction can be shared across many inputs (what exchanges do) or by settling many Layer 2 transactions.
Even if an average Bitcoin on-chain transaction fee ends up costing a whopping $1,200, but represents the settling of 12,000 constituent transactions, the fee per transaction is $0.1.
Visa makes ~$22B in revenue on ~185B annual transactions, or $0.12 per transaction.
In the above scenario, the total fees per block would amount to $2.4M.
That's roughly 10x the value of the newly mined Bitcoin in each block today (6.25 x $35k = $220k).
Put another way, to maintain today's mining industry, need 1/10th the revenue of container ship industry.
In summary,
Bitcoin block = container ship
On-chain transaction = container
Many tx inputs = many smaller items inside container
Fee market will develop fine, like a global shipping industry for digital value.
Edit: Whoops, 210,000/4 blocks per year. Don't multitask and Tweet thread y'all
Overall story remains the same though
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Dollars, gold, #Bitcoin - which is the best for storing your hard earned money?
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All forms of money grow in total value as the global economy grows. What differs is how they do it.
The U.S. prints as many dollars as needed to achieve 2% inflation.
The only way to do this is to pull supply out to the right far enough that it deflates the purchasing power of all existing dollars by ~2%. (For your own good!)
As time goes on and Bitcoin's network effect grows, educational content gets better, UX/UI of onramps and services get simpler, it gets easier for people to "get it"
Just like with the Internet in the 90s, social media, mobile, etc.
Same chart, now not in log format
If we think about how equipped everyone in the world is to understand that Bitcoin is on a trajectory to become the world's preferred money / dominant SoV... we would have a bell curve distribution, shown here
However, as @johnkvallis pointed out to me, there are different levels of #Bitcoin adoption, and each level is at a different point in the adoption curve.
When we clearly segment these levels of Bitcoin adoption, it helps illuminate just how early it still is for Bitcoin.
For our purposes, let's segment Bitcoin adopters into four buckets:
1) Everyone is familiar with @100trillionUSD S2F model. Critics recoil because it seems to scale too rapidly. What they're forgetting is an intangible amplifying force that I wanted to ballpark quantify: the normal distribution of technology adopters.
2) Some very rough assumptions:
a. Bitcoin as preferred money / savings technology has total addressable market of anyone with $10k+ wealth (2.2B, source: statista.com/statistics/203…). Impoverished communities will also use BTC, but focused on TAM of those with wealth to store
2b. Current penetration is 10M. This is a rough estimate of how many people have $1,000+ stored in BTC, based on 3M addresses with >0.1BTC bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riches…, and accounting for balances on exchange/GBTC ownership/etc.