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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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22 Jan, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Iceland success:

- 5 new cases yesterday (it would be good have report of how many are pre-quarantined)
- 29 total deaths. None this year.
Brazil continues to battle the new variant, cases and deaths are high.

The celebration of Carnival in Rio de Janeiro has been canceled.
In Massachusetts, Gov Charlie Baker (@MassGovernor), declared today that he will loosen restrictions, citing decreasing test positivity and decreasing hospitalizations. A step in the wrong direction.

Note the small decrease in hospitalizations.
Just this week, Massachusetts found two cases of the more transmissible UK variant B117: one with recent travel from the UK, one with unknown travel history. Even more reason to take strong action to reduce cases.

See a global variant tracker here:
public.tableau.com/profile/brooks…
Updates from the US CDC today:

-144 confirmed cases of UK variant B117 across 20 states
-Since Feb. 2020, 492,000 more deaths than expected
Germany recently announced that they will extend their current lockdown. The country is considering a #NoCovid strategy - the only strategy proven throughout the world to produce a positive outcome with a return to normalcy.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
23 Jan
Ireland has continued success with declining case rates, suggesting containment is possible despite having a high level of UK variant.

They recently decided to extend current restrictions “well into February”.

irishtimes.com/news/health/co… ImageImage
Portugal’s condition becomes dire as they begin their battle against the more transmissible UK variant.

Yesterday they reported 13,544 cases and 221 deaths. Test positivity is at 18% and climbing rapidly.

ImageImage
To put the Portugal numbers into perspective, compare per capita case and death rates with those from the US. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
22 Jan
Denmark is sequencing all coronavirus samples and has an alarming view of the U.K. variant

"Like a speeding car whose brake lines have been cut, the coronavirus variant first spotted in Britain is spreading at an alarming rate..

1/
washingtonpost.com/world/europe/u…
".and isn’t responding to established ways of slowing the pandemic, according to Danish scientists who have one of the world’s best views into the new, more contagious strain.

"Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown

2/
“We’re losing some of the tools that we have to control the epidemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, scientific director of the institute, which has begun sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
21 Jan
Some countries are in severe crisis mode, but recently many countries are improving. Today we highlight the countries that are now less than 20% of their peak in new cases. Not only are these countries succeeding, but this is a significant shift in the global situation.
At EndCoronavirus.org/countries, we sort countries into three categories: “winning”, “nearly there”, “needs action”

“Winning” report very few new cases
“Nearly there” made significant progress reducing cases, less than 20% of peak
“Needs action” are those that haven’t gotten there
Recently more countries became “nearly there,” the number increased from 10 to 25 in a month, with almost all of them coming from the “needs action.” Let’s look at what is happening.
Read 31 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
20 Jan
Denmark continues to improve rapidly, 7-day average is down from 3,600 to 1,300, nearly reduced by a factor of 3.

Restrictions in Denmark until Feb 7 include a 5-person limit on public gatherings and the closure of bars, restaurants and schools.
Australian success continues: Two days of no (zero) cases of local transmission. All new cases (25 in two days) were imported from overseas and already quarantined.
UK case rates are going down significantly, showing that the new variant can be controlled. Yesterday 37,610 new cases, down from a peak of over 68,000.

Today UK reported 1,610 deaths, new high. Another week or two before deaths significantly decline.

bbc.com/news/uk-557221…
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
19 Jan
Indonesia yesterday reported 12,818 new cases and 238 deaths.

Cases are rising rapidly, low test rate, and high test positivity of 25-30% suggest more cases are being missed.

“Hospitals on Java, the country’s most populous island, are on the brink of collapse...”
Indonesia recently appointed a new Health Minister and there are hopes of a science-based response. The previous HM advocated widespread use of an unproven treatment he developed.

Hopefully they look to nearby Australia for example and support.

sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/c…
Vietnam (population nearly 100 million) continues to see success, reporting only 5 cases yesterday, for a total of 1,536 cases.

All international travelers to Vietnam are quarantined upon arrival. Nearly 18,000 people are currently quarantined.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
18 Jan
Canada begins to see cases decline. From a maximum 7 day average of 8,885, yesterday they reported 6,880 cases, and 184 deaths.

Ontario, Quebec sharp declines.
Atlantic Canada continues to have fairly low cases.

NB and NS battle outbreaks. Cases in last two weeks:

New Brunswick: 300
Nova Scotia: 55
Prince Edward Island: 8
Newfoundland and Labrador: 5
Alaska improves in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Given trends and geographical distribution of cases, using a Green Zone Exit Strategy, like in Australia, could allow Alaska to return to normal very quickly.
Read 4 tweets

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