Thread by @yaneerbaryam

Some countries are in severe crisis mode, but recently many countries are improving. Today we highlight the countries that are now less than 20% of their peak in new cases. Not only are these countries succeeding, but this is a significant shift in the global situation.

At EndCoronavirus.org/countries, we sort countries into three categories: “winning”, “nearly there”, “needs action”

“Winning” report very few new cases
“Nearly there” made significant progress reducing cases, less than 20% of peak
“Needs action” are those that haven’t gotten there

Recently more countries became “nearly there,” the number increased from 10 to 25 in a month, with almost all of them coming from the “needs action.” Let’s look at what is happening.

Afghanistan had reached a peak of 740 cases per day in June. Now they are down to 1/10 of their peak.

Armenia had reached a peak of 2,000 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/6 of their peak.

Azerbaijan had reached a peak of 4,100 cases per day in December. Now they are down to 1/12 of their peak.

Bangladesh had reached a peak of 3,600 cases per day in June. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

Belgium had reached a peak of 15,000 cases per day in October. Now they are down to 1/8 of their peak.

Belize had reached a peak of 290 cases per day in December. Now they are down to 1/8 of their peak.

Bosnia had reached a peak of 1,550 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

Bulgaria had reached a peak of 3,300 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/8 of their peak.

China had reached a peak of 4,600 cases per day in February. Now they are down to 1/20 of their peak.

Croatia had reached a peak of 3,600 cases per day in December. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

Greece had reached a peak of 2,500 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

India had reached a peak of 92,000 cases per day in September. Now they are down to 1/7 of their peak.

Iraq had reached a peak of 4,300 cases per day in September. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

Jordan had reached a peak of 5,400 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/6 of their peak.

Kenya had reached a peak of 1,000 cases per day in November. Now they are down to ⅛ of their peak.

Kyrgyzstan had reached a peak of 2,300 cases per day in July. Now they are down to 1/20 of their peak.

Luxembourg had reached a peak of 670 cases per day in November. Now they are down to 1/6 of their peak.

Mali had reached a peak of 130 cases per day in December. Now they are down to 1/5 of their peak.

Nepal had reached a peak of 3,800 cases per day in October. Now they are down to 1/11 of their peak.

Qatar had reached a peak of 1,800 cases per day in May. Now they are down to 1/9 of their peak.

Saudi Arabia had reached a peak of 4,300 cases per day in June. Now they are down to 1/25 of their peak.

Singapore had reached a peak of 1,000 cases per day in April. Now they are down to 1/30 of their peak.

Uzbekistan had reached a peak of 700 cases per day in August. Now they are down to 1/11 of their peak.

- if countries can get cases low, they can get them to zero
- when cases get low, it’s time to double-down on restrictions and get to zero
- green countries come in all shapes, sizes, and governmental structures

- every country has their own unique challenges, but we should focus on what needs to happen to get to zero, rather than just noting the challenges and giving up
- even if a country isn't getting to zero, regions within the country can (see India, Canada, etc)

- there is no need to guess what is needed to get to zero, as dozens of countries have already showed us the way
- we know of no country that has gotten there without having an explicit goal of eliminating all transmission

- many countries have tried to tolerate low cases numbers, just to explode with cases later (nearly all of Europe).
- Zero is the only stable number of cases.

There are currently 27 countries on our “winning” list, reporting very few cases. We hope to see this list expand as more countries move toward #CovidZero.