Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

Ontario update.

#covid19ontario #COVID19 #covid19Canada

Ontario covid-19 cases, deaths, and testing.

Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero.

Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, including % of deaths attributed to Covid-19.

Note: Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.

Ontario total weekly deaths Jan 2010-Sept 2020.

Covid-19 has been a crisis in Ontario's long-term care (LTC) system vs. among the general public.

Covid-19 deaths per million by age cohort and for long-term care residents.

The 80+ age cohort accounts for 52% of all-cause deaths in Ontario and 69% of deaths from or with Covid-19, but only 4% of the population.

More deaths over 90 than under 80.

The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy from or with covid-19.

The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy from or with covid-19.

The number of hospitalizations linked to covid-19 in Ontario relative to historical benchmark levels for influenza and pneumonia.

Ontario hospitalizations from or with covid-19.

As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the average daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).

A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line). (Daily reported deaths divided by average daily cases over prior 28 days.)

The silver lining of mass PCR testing: a falling CFR.

Ontario – Cumulative case fatality rate (CFR). The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line). (Cumulative reported deaths divided by cumulative cases.)

Ontario – Case survival rates (= 100% - case fatality rate) by age.

(True survival rates based on IFR should be significantly higher.)

data.ontario.ca/dataset/status…

publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-an…

news.ontario.ca/en/release/566…

covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-epide…

covid-19.ontario.ca/data

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.…

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.…

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…