Thread by @DrEricDing

DELAYING 2nd DOSE RISKY—

🇬🇧 SAGE warning:

Delaying doses of coronavirus inoculations will increase the chances of a vaccine-resistant strain of #COVID19 emerging, government scientists warn. 🧵
independent.co.uk/news/health/co…

2) Sage scientists there was an “increased risk of virus replication under partial immunity after one dose than after two doses, so in the short term, delaying the second dose would be expected to somewhat increase the probability of emergence of vaccine resistance”

3) Is such an increase material? It is not currently possible to quantify the probability of emergence of vaccine resistance as a result of the delayed second dose, but it is likely to be *small*. The UK currently has limited supplies of vaccine.

4) current UK circumstances the unquantifiable but likely small probability of the delayed second dose generating a vaccine escape mutant must be weighed against the measurable benefits of doubling the speed with which the most vulnerable can be given vaccine-induced protection.”

5) But the paper added: “Given what we have observed recently with the variants B.1.1.7 and B1.351, it is a realistic possibility that over time immune escape variants will emerge, most likely driven by increasing population immunity following natural infection.”

5) BOTTOMLINE— there is a small risk of the partial immunity of having 1 of 2 doses in driving virus evolution to mutate.

But same time, more viruses circulating with half the number people vaccinated will also allow more mutation chances too, and it leaves people vulnerable.

6) Basically, with such a raging pandemic, there is no easy solution. Nothing is easy in a pandemic.

Easy thing though - TAKE YOUR VACCINE, and TAKE 2 if offered.

6) This why vaccines designed for 1 dose only instead of 2 required doses could be easier to administer and logistically manage in the field and avoid the 2nd dose delay issue.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1353018281381289985