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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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24 Jan, 8 tweets, 4 min read
This is bad—Berlin has just put an entire hospital under quarantine lockdown & diverting all patients after *20 patients & staff* tested positive for more infectious #B117 variant of #SARSCoV2 from UK. Spokesperson expects to confirm more soon. #COVID19
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
2) This is why I urgently ask everyone to switch to premium masks ASAP if you can.
3) Germany is heeding the dire warning from UK and Denmark CDC on the #B117– It is a beast.
4) Basically, Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC (@SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we are completely screwed by spring time.
5) To be clear—even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....
6) Notably, the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, 3000 new cases/day instead—

6x vs old.

HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
7) Hospital or nursing home—#B117 will dominant anywhere.
8) I’ve reviewed the new data in #B117’s higher mortality presented by U.K. govt. it’s legitimately concerning. I walk folks thru the data in the thread 🧵

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jan
A NEW HOPE: 27x more effective than Remdesivir against #COVID19 in lab study –Aplidin is a drug derived from a marine sea squirt found only in waters off 🇪🇸 island of Ibiza. A cancer drug for multiple myeloma, it’s showing COVID success in lab studies. 🧵
jsonline.com/story/news/202… Image
2) International team of scientists identify new treatment for COVID-19 that appears to be far more effective than current drugs.
jsonline.com/story/news/202…

A related preprint says that tests have shown the drug is equally effective against #b117 variant too!
3) Aplidin, already approved in Australia for treating multiple myeloma, has been developed as a potential COVID-19 treatment by the Spanish drug company PharMar. 

The drug was identified as a potential treatment after scientists at UCSF tried an unconventional approach...
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Jan
BREAKING—First U.S. case of highly transmissible Brazil 🇧🇷 coronavirus variant identified of the so-called #P1 variant—involves “a Minnesota resident with recent travel to Brazil”. It was detected through random surveillance of blood samples. #covid19 washingtonpost.com/health/brazil-…
2) P1 is very similar to the South African #B1351 variant — both have the E484K mutation. For the 🇿🇦 variant, Moderna found 6 folder lower antibody neutralization for people vaccinated than compared to normal #SARSCoV2.

E484K mutation shown to have high immune escape. See 🧵
3) worrisome was blood from 48% of people previously recovered from #COVID19 in the 1st 2020 wave in South Africa did not recognize new #B1351 🇿🇦 variant — “complete immune escape”.

Worry is the E484K mutation both 🇿🇦 & 🇧🇷 variants share. ?
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Jan
BREAKING—US has added South Africa 🇿🇦 to list of restricted travel countries because of the new #B1351 variant. Also, all “international travelers to US must provide proof of a negative test within 3 days of travel to airlines prior to departure." #COVID19
2) IMHO as an epidemiologist, a test 3 days prior to travel (plus 8-16 hours of international travel time itself) alone is not in any way fool proof. We know one can test negative for 4-6 days after exposure before either symptoms or positive test. Many Trump WH staffers did so.
3) We also need rapid testing upon boarding and testing upon arrival. While not foolproof either, it adds another layer to Swiss Cheese model.

➡️I previously called this my multilevel castle defense strategy of not just relying on outer wall but also most, inner keep, etc. Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Jan
⚠️CONCERNING—Millions of doses of #COVID19 vaccine shipped by Trump WH/HHS are missing. Nobody knows why yet. Biden coronavirus task force have spent first days in office working overtime to solve puzzle. So far, one hasn’t emerged. (by @ErinBanco) 🧵
thedailybeast.com/millions-of-co… Image
2) “According to data from CDC, 41.4 million doses have been handed out to the states. Only 21.8 mil have been administered. Bottom line: Doses should be flowing, they said But instead, states are complaining of vaccine shortages.”
3) COVID ACT NOW has just added a state by state vaccine tracker with shots delivered. Nobody sure why the big discrepancy in shipments vs shots administered. covidactnow.org/?s=1550490
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Jan
BREAKING—Good & bad news—The Moderna #COVID19 vaccine fully protected against the UK 🇬🇧 #B117 variant... but was 6x less efficient at neutralizing the South African #B1351 variant in lab test. Moderna is testing a newly synthesized booster for it—3rd shot. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01… Image
2) To be clear—6x less efficient doesn’t mean no protection against #B11351, it’s still good but not as good as before. As a precaution, Moderna announced it will launch two new studies—including adding a third shot of its current vaccine to boost its two-dose regimen.
3) press release is very cautiously worded—“6-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels w/ B.1.351 remain above levels expected to be protective.”
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
Read 22 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Jan
BREAKING—Mexico 🇲🇽 President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has contracted #COVID19. He says he has mild symptoms thus far.

I’ve been warning for months Mexico has a serious uncontrolled epidemic. @HLGatell dismissed and says it was fine cuz hospitals weren’t full. Image
2) Rewind to June 21 2020, I was very worried and warning about Mexico’s 50% positivity that matched the high numbers of NY (state) & average 7 day positivity of Spain and Italy. Positivity reflects both limited testing and/or caseload—both worrisome. @MaxCRoser super worried too
3) Here is a good review of what happened after.
Read 9 tweets

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