Thread by @DavidSteadson

A delayed update with yesterday's new #covid19sverige data. The Public Health Authority reported 84 new deaths, taking the total to 11005.

Oldest change was -1 to March 11!!

I've been pointing out since it happened on Nov 5 that Folkhälsomyndigheten added a new death to the very first day we had a SARS-CoV-2 death but Swedish journalists didn't seem curious and FHM didn't answer me. Now it seems they've noticed and it was a data error ... +1 to Nov 3

Yesterday also had a change to July 7, subtracting one death. Other than these changes, the oldest change was +1 to Nov 26 and only a handful of other changes in December, so we appear to have finally caught up on the holiday reporting lag.

I think we can therefore expect lower numbers on reporting days over the next weeks than we've seen over the past few weeks, but it's important to note this doesn't necessarily reflect a change in trajectory of the pandemic.

Wave 2 peak(s) of 7-day average mortality remains at 97 deaths/day on Dec 28 and Dec 31. Wave 2 now has more days in excess of 90 deaths/day on this metric than Wave 1 (and far more in excess of 80)

In a good sign, cases also continue to fall despite schools and workplaces having returned 2 weeks ago. The new restrictions clearly appear to have been having an effect.

This is reflected in hospitalisation and ICU data (Graphs by @CovidXIX)

The next week is crucial in monitoring the effect of return from holidays. The government has also recommended a partial return to the classroom from Monday, as well as relaxed restrictions on youth sport. These measures can be expected to contribute to an increase in R.

The wildcard remains the new more transmissible variants. As of Jan 19 Sweden had detected 55 cases of B.117 (UK) and two of B.1.351 (South Africa). Analysis of tests that can detect "Spike Gene Target Failure" indicate the true number may be far higher.

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber…

As of Jan 17 approx 147000 people had received their first doses of vaccination. This is at a rate similar to other EU countries, but far below the UK and US. Israel has vaccinated an astounding 38% of their population.

Expect reported mortality numbers to show a significant decrease in the next week. This is a result of the combination of decreased lag in reporting and increased restrictions. Rolling 7 day average mortality should also continue to decline, but as usual will be 2-3 weeks behind.

The important metric to watch over the next 2 weeks is case data. Will the relaxing of restrictions and spread of the new variants push R back over 1 and infections begin to increase again, as has happened in other countries? I suspect it will, but hope it won't!