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Nenad Bakic Profile picture
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23 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/ Croatia SARS-CoV-2 cases now down 84.5% from the top despite some of the least stringest measures in EU, and a series of eartquakes leading to more social interaction. Hospitals - less then 50% from the top.
First, cases:

(@BallouxFrancois @MartinKulldorff @FrankfurtZack)
2/ Stringency:
3/4
4/4 See you in our beautiful country for Easter holidays, in a country which kept its cool and didn't lockdown its people, all Covid refuges are wellcome, get in touch for more info!

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More from @nbakic

Nenad Bakic Profile picture
21 Jan
1/
Jako dobre vijesti za sve ljude dobre volje

I dalje se nastavlja veliki pad epidemije po svim parametrima. Kako smo sada daleko ispod kapaciteta sustava, testira se puno i naravno slučajevi dobro opisuju epidemiju, ali svi parametri ukazuju na baš isto. Image
2/ Ovdje pokazujem neke parametre do de facto dolaska proljeća kad bi nas epidemija zaista trebala napustiti. Među njima sam izabrao i jedan baš jako loš, a to je da Hrvatska sad počne rasti kao najbrže rastuća zemlja EU, Portugal. Image
3/ Oni rastu 23%, mi trenutno padamo 32%, pa sam predvidio da taj rast dosegnemo u 14 dana i onda vozimo po tako velikim brzinama. Dakle, čak i uz totalni negativni preokret, do 1.3. bismo došli na trećinu slučajeva s vrha...
Read 8 tweets
Nenad Bakic Profile picture
16 Jan
An incredible, one of a kind, natural epidemiological experiment took place in Croatia.

It would be unethical to abolish all the Covid measures in a territory, but it happened in a Croatian county due to a series of eartquakes.

@BallouxFrancois @MartinKulldorff

1/ Image
A series of lethal eartquakes, the strongest measuring 6.2 ML, claimed 7 lives and a large demage, strongly affecting some 100,000 people. Immediately, on 28th December, thousands of volunteers from accross the country converged to the affected area.

2/
Nobody cared for any 'measures', including masks, saving lifes and property and organising life had priority. The Government abolished the prohibition on crossing counties' borders for the whole country, the measure introduced just several days earlier.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Nenad Bakic Profile picture
26 Dec 20
CEE countries: A case study in inevitability of SARS-CoV-2 spreading and seasonality - a THREAD

EU CEE countries did remarkably well in the 1st wave and were praised as champions. In red, and small Baltic countries in orange (we need to understand what's happening there)
1/
(... the analysis holds true with them, they are just marked with a different colour for clarity.)

Only one of them was in Top 13 EU countries re. deaths. BUT, in the second wave, they dominate the list

2/
Here we recognize our old friend, reversion to the mean. Tegnell was right: maraton and not sprint, most of the countries will converge:

3/
Read 10 tweets
Nenad Bakic Profile picture
4 Nov 20
1/x Covid - Europe: The 2nd Wave collapse continutes

We continue with daily overview using JHU data (+some) looking at 'fast' weekly changes (day over the same day the prev. week) this gives us an edge in being up-to-date.

@kerpen @BallouxFrancois @boriquagato @FatEmperor
2/x Changes in weekly growth rates reflect changes in R's, thus these charts roughly represent changes in R's. Now let's see for particular countries .... but overall looking at the continent gives us a 'situational awareness' since this is like a savanah fire ....
3/ Czechia and Belgium were 'second wave Lombardia' they are doing particularly well. In fact that's due to e.g. Czechia having 2,5% population officially infected in 5 weeks, with their dark probably some 25% - it had to stop.
Read 11 tweets
Nenad Bakic Profile picture
5 Sep 20
1/ Now REALLY interesting results from Sweden. After current infection rate at ~0% published on Thu, yesterday seroprevalence in a Stockholm district in June (related to infection prevalence beg. of June) showed 18.7% AB. Allowing for addtl. 3 mo. buildup, probably ~25% now ...
2/ ... leading to countrywide prevalence od probably at least 15% (having in mind Stockholm is big and there are some other big cities). Karolinska research found out 2/3 infected did not develop measurable AB, meaning 40% country-wide infection has been reached ....
3/ ... and infection collapsed, as predicted by models using (naturally!) heterogenity. For sure reaching HIT does not mean the infections stops, just it slows down to a weak propagation, together with potential smaller local outbrakes.
Read 4 tweets
Nenad Bakic Profile picture
2 Jul 20
1/ Calling @IHME_UW to correct GIGO model for Croatia which, using wrong inputs and unclear algorithms produces ludicrous projections and compromises trust in the integritiy of the whole project
@MLevitt_NP2013
2/ The model anticipates 1500 COVID victims in Croatia by 1-10-2020, the current no. being 108. That's 14 times more. Comparison with neighb. Serbia and BiH really puzzles, projected deaths/m. being 11 and 5 times higher though the current situation is inverse, especially trends
3/ The model itself screems 'unreliable' adding 1500 'expected' victims from the last 'observed' data and the 95% interval between 0 (!) and some 17,000 (!) cases growth. The latest seroprevelence figures by the gvt. are in the 2% zone, implying IFR of some 0.125% ...
Read 9 tweets

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