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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
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24 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Ironic that Dems are usually criticized as a 'coastal' party, but I think Georgia's relative *lack* of a coastline helps Dems -- it attracts fewer R retirees. The gains NC Dems made in New Hanover County (Wilmington) have easily been erased by R growth in Pender & Brunswick.
and this is even before you throw in Carteret and Craven.
It was close, but Brunswick County wouldn't even vote for Mike McIntyre in 2012 -- that's when it was gone for basically *any* Dem.
"But Miles, Biden did better than Hillary there."

Ok, but looking longer term, not so great that Trump doubled McCain's raw vote margin among those three counties.
Also important, these three are becoming a bigger part of the electorate (h/t @kilometerbryman). They cast 4.1% of the state's votes in 2008, and were up to 4.6% in 2020.

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More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
21 Jan
Before #InaugurationDay closes out, have to say I thought a lot about how happy Sen. Hagan would be today. Biden visited her after she fell sick.
This was pre-pandemic (she died in late 2019).

They didn’t get her seat back but not her fault NC is becoming FL.
Strike the FL comparison — I meant as in seemingly slightly R for everything.

I knew I shouldn’t have gone there.
Read 5 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
6 Jan
well that was a fun election cycle
You guys know what I mean
Next person who brings up NY-22 is getting a block
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
28 Nov 20
Taylor Swift’s home county, Berks PA, swung 1.7% against Trump — but he improved in its largest city, Reading. Why? The city is 2/3 Hispanic.

Biden won Reading 72%-27%, down from Clinton’s 78%-19%. More evidence Biden’s struggles with Hispanics weren’t just a Sun Belt thing.
“But Miles, you can’t make sweeping generalizations like that!”

Fair, but fits with what we’ve seen so far. If I drilled into the precincts results, we’d see probably something like this.
Had some other stuff planned but guess I’m gonna have to do a precinct map of this, to show some of you guys what I mean. Given what we’ve seen in other northern states, this was a reasonable inference to make.

And no, I’m not “blaming” any group or another for the result.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
25 Nov 20
With its votes certified, Biden won Minnesota by just over 7%; the same overall result that Mike Dukakis got in 1988. The farm crisis helped Dukakis in Greater MN, which was lighter red. MN-8 is now an R-leaning district. But MN-4 (St. Paul) & MN-5 (Minneapolis) are darker blue. Image
One of those times where I wish we could edit tweets, but MN-8 should have been a shade *darker* blue in 1988. It was Dukakis +19%.

Was debating putting the CD breakdowns on the graphic, and I should have -- I would have caught this. Image
I seriously beat myself up about these small errors, but I think it's best to be transparent!
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
20 Nov 20
Around Philadelphia, Biden carried the four suburban collar counties by a combined 59%-40%. This was an improvement from Clinton's 55%-41% margin in 2016. A mild blue shift was broad, though some bleeding in Lower Bucks stands out. Chester County, at Biden +17, was a bellwether. Image
I double-checked Lower Oxford, the dark red in southwest Chester. It was Clinton +22 to Biden +2. There's a HBCU there -- Lincoln University -- so I wonder if schools being online impacted that.
Lower Oxford also cast *fewer* votes than 2016 (rare for the area) so that sort of suggests my guess.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
1 Jul 18
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Read 8 tweets

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