IMPORTANT: #CA45 & #CA39 don't be disheartened if the next couple batches of ballots counted skew GOP.
Spent most of my weekend observing the vote count in OC and LA. In OC the GOP is challenging the signature on every Dem ballot so lots of our ballots are getting pulled out.
The GOP is challenging the signature on #CA45 & #CA39 Dem ballot sat every tier when officials say they're a match.
So our ballots are there & will ve counted after extra inspections. This is not only slowing down the count, but will also produce batches w/less Dem ballots.
To be clear, I believe both #CA39 & #CA45 are going to flip. The OC Registrar is fair and ethical and isn't going to uphold frivolous challenges. These Dem ballots will be counted. It's just you might see some batches where there are less Dem ballots & then eventually, Dem ones.
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07#TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
#ME2: Mars Hill, Millenocket, Bangor, Stonington #NY11: Staten Island, Bensonhurst #FL26: Miami, Homestead, the Keys #TX23: San Antonio, Crystal City, Eagle Pass, El Paso, Tornillo #CA48, #CA45, #CA39: Newport, Irvine, Yorba Linda #CO6: Aurora, Centennial
1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.
2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.
Back in May, Paul Ryan personally solicited billionaire Sheldon Adelson for $30Million for the CLF. He made the pitch and then walked out of the room so that someone else could make the actual “ask”, in order to avoid campaign finance violations. esquire.com/news-politics/…
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Thanks to reporting from various sources, we now know that at least 14 GOP lawmakers (nine senators, three governors, and two congressmen, both from CA) are tied up in various segments of Bob Mueller's probe into election interference in 2016.
Six are tied in due to money they got from Russian oligarchs Viktor Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik. They are Sens. Mitch McConnell (MS), Marco Rubio (FL), Lindsey Graham (SC), and John McCain (AZ), along with Govs. John Kasich (OH) and Scott Walker (WI).
The GOP's silence about ripping children from their parents is deafening.
Guess who *is* stating a clear moral position on this...Your 2018 Democratic swing district nominees. I've threaded their positions below. Please RT and follow all. #FlipEverything. Save America's soul.
So here's a quick thread highlighting some (lower-profile) races you should absolutely be paying attention to today!
You know the big ones:
—Will Dems be shut-out in any of the 3 crowded Orange Co districts (#CA39, #CA48, #CA49)?
—Will the GOP be shut out in one/both of California's Senate & Gov race?
In New Mexico, state Rep. Debbie Rodella is facing a primary challenger in the Democratic primary (Susan Herrera). Rodella has killed progressive legislation, such as automatic voting registration. See: dailykos.com/stories/2018/4…
Here's the deal: We have to #FlipItBlue in November. We have to elect @DaveMinCA. Here's why. In #CA45 (Orange County, California), we have a fighting chance to knock out Rep. Mimi Walters, a do-nothing Republican Trump follower, & replace her with an amazing Democrat. THREAD 1/
The top Democratic candidates for #CA45 are @DaveMinCA and @KatiePorterOC. Just by being Democrats with a conscience, they are both infinitely better than Mimi Walters. But the best #CA45 Democratic candidate, by far, is @DaveMinCA. 2/
has amazing people skills, real plans for all the important issues, & broad support from grassroots Democratic organizations on the ground in Orange County. Dave easily won more votes than all the other candidates combined in the local straw polls among local Dems. 3/