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J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
, 8 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
In last month's #CA45 primary, Rep. Walters (red) took an outright majority, with about 52%. She was the only Republican in a 6-way field, and carried 424 of 448 precincts. For second place, Katie Porter (blue), edged out Dave Min (green) by about 4K votes.
Combing the votes, things look better for Democrats. Their candidates took 46% of the votes. Walters won most Irvine & Tustin precincts with pluralities; in this map, both are pretty blue. Overall, this was obviously worse than HRC's result, but better than other past Dems. #CA45
Walters placed second in very few precincts (as she carried most of them). Katie Porter (blue) finished second over 3/4 of precincts (341 of 448). Dave Min's (green) strength was mostly concentrated in Irvine, with some in Laguna Hills & Mission Viejo. #CA45
Finally, here's Porter (blue) vs Min (green). Porter got 34K votes to Min's 30K. Min did well in Irvine, but Porter just had broader strength. Cities in the north (Anaheim, Orange, Tustin) that went heavily to Walters overall also gave Porter comfortable margins here. #ca45
ah, should be "Combining the votes", but I guess I was combing over some data to get this map.
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