Taylor Swift’s home county, Berks PA, swung 1.7% against Trump — but he improved in its largest city, Reading. Why? The city is 2/3 Hispanic.

Biden won Reading 72%-27%, down from Clinton’s 78%-19%. More evidence Biden’s struggles with Hispanics weren’t just a Sun Belt thing.
“But Miles, you can’t make sweeping generalizations like that!”

Fair, but fits with what we’ve seen so far. If I drilled into the precincts results, we’d see probably something like this.
Had some other stuff planned but guess I’m gonna have to do a precinct map of this, to show some of you guys what I mean. Given what we’ve seen in other northern states, this was a reasonable inference to make.

And no, I’m not “blaming” any group or another for the result.
So here we go -- there actually does look like there's some correlation. The only precinct in Reading where Biden outperformed Clinton (Wd 18, Precinct 2) is also the whitest precinct.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with J. Miles Coleman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JMilesColeman

25 Nov
With its votes certified, Biden won Minnesota by just over 7%; the same overall result that Mike Dukakis got in 1988. The farm crisis helped Dukakis in Greater MN, which was lighter red. MN-8 is now an R-leaning district. But MN-4 (St. Paul) & MN-5 (Minneapolis) are darker blue. Image
One of those times where I wish we could edit tweets, but MN-8 should have been a shade *darker* blue in 1988. It was Dukakis +19%.

Was debating putting the CD breakdowns on the graphic, and I should have -- I would have caught this. Image
I seriously beat myself up about these small errors, but I think it's best to be transparent!
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
Around Philadelphia, Biden carried the four suburban collar counties by a combined 59%-40%. This was an improvement from Clinton's 55%-41% margin in 2016. A mild blue shift was broad, though some bleeding in Lower Bucks stands out. Chester County, at Biden +17, was a bellwether. Image
I double-checked Lower Oxford, the dark red in southwest Chester. It was Clinton +22 to Biden +2. There's a HBCU there -- Lincoln University -- so I wonder if schools being online impacted that.
Lower Oxford also cast *fewer* votes than 2016 (rare for the area) so that sort of suggests my guess.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul 18
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Read 8 tweets
13 Apr 18
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%.
#SCOWIS #wopolitics #ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Read 11 tweets
15 Jan 18
Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Read 6 tweets
7 Jan 18
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms.
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936.
Despite the county flipping to Clinton, a quartet of districts there (or at least partially contained within OC) reelected R incumbents to Congress: #CA39, #CA45, #CA48, and #CA49.
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!