Tweet

Kelly Brown

2 Jan, 12 tweets, 5 min read

@csc_canada_

Quick summary of the total *garbage* economic “analysis” by @csc_canada_ and the #CanadianShield folks (aka #COVIDZero). This is their “evidence” for more damaging, widespread lockdowns in Canada, which I now believe are inevitable given this new PR push….

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1345433077246537730

It starts with a completely made up, fancy acronym called “STUDIO” as the name for the “model", to presumably give it an air of legitimacy...

It was “completed quickly” and designed to inform policymakers (so it will have the ear of government)…

The central argument is if you lockdown hard/fast, and don’t reopen until the virus is close to 0, then you can reopen fully, and lost GDP/employment will be lower vs. on-again/off-again mitigation…

(note: they cherry-pick draconian lockdown from Australia as a comparison…)

The analysis does NOTHING other than assume that (1) we lockdown for an *extended* period, (2) the virus is eliminated, and (3) we open back up and the economy returns immediately to normal…

The estimate of lost GDP/employment under full lockdown vs. on/off mitigation is a *BASIC* single variable assumption of what GDP/employment *would have been assuming no pandemic*… its intellectually bankrupt and amateur analysis !

They assume after a long winter/spring lockdown, the economy goes RIGHT back to where it as before….

(and appears to ignore seasonality altogether.... which we know is a feature of this virus)

bankrupt analysis !

*without any dynamic analysis of the LONGTERM collateral damage to the productive abilities of the economy (and people’s lives) because of lockdowns…* ….they offer a BASIC table of the GDP/employment differences under the scenarios (showing #CanadianShield as the best)….

This model is intellectually bankrupt and will likely inform public policy and is based on SIMPLE, STATIC analysis that a virus is eliminated by a long lockdown, the economy will return immediately to normal after, and costs/hardships will be lower as a result. Huh ??

Its quite clear this group wants a damaging, Canada-wide lockdown....

Based on a garbage, 7-page paper with lots of pretty tables and graphs...

https://twitter.com/rubiconcapital_/status/1344308128842723333?s=20

(addendum with information below that totally discredits the use of the Australian model as there is some evidence that COVID may have circulated under their noses in 2019, thus making herd immunity a potential source of their COVID success).

https://twitter.com/rubiconcapital_/status/1344308128842723333?s=20

https://twitter.com/commonsense312/status/1344517333088399360?s=20

(further in support of the addendum above)...

https://twitter.com/commonsense312/status/1344517333088399360?s=20

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

3 Jan

@GlobalCanadaOrg

"Global Canada” (@GlobalCanadaOrg) appears to be the funder of the #CanadianShield strategy (@csc_canada_), essentially a #COVIDZero rebrand, supported by Ont Science Table members. It seeks extended, hard-lockdowns Canadawide.

Global Canada is funded by Bill Gates’ Foundation…

@RobertGreenhill

Global Canada (“GC”) is run by Executive Chairman, Robert Greenhill (@RobertGreenhill). Mr. Greenhill is a former high-ranking official at the World Economic Forum, serving as Managing Director and Chief Business Officer for 6 years until 2014, when he founded Global Canada…

Global Canada (“GC”) was founded in 2015 and has since received three grants as disclosed on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation website. The first two were in November 2015/2016 and total a modest ~$1.3m…

(more on the 3rd, more recent grant in a moment)

Read 22 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

2 Jan

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1345173515763392516

I believe we're now in danger of full Canadawide "hard-lockdown" for at least 3 months. This is the appalling #COVIDZero strategy unofficially supported by the Science Table, rebranded as #CanadianShield. Economy/society won't make it 'til Spring. ⬇️is based on garbage analysis!

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1345173515763392516

This is the thin, bankrupt economic analysis the group puts forth, which contains no analytical rigor, and assumes the economy can bounce immediately to full capacity and the "end" of a lockdown. Utter absurdity. drive.google.com/file/d/1ZDcal5…

There is no evidence of a deadly epidemic in the community....

Read 13 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

23 Dec 20

The unconvincing analysis from your Ontario #COVID19 Science Table; a quick thread…

Michigan has been used as a reference point by the Science Table since October 9th….

And again, in the October 29th update…
(case growth not yet worrisome)

Read 12 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

20 Dec 20

1/ Grab a cup of coffee

We are now seeing striking correlations between (i) the # of COVID19 tests and (ii) % positivity within/across certain important individual PHUs in Ontario.

This has implications for local lockdown policy, and for the global PCR/false-positive debate...

@profnfenton

2/

If you are not in Ontario, but involved with / following the PCR debate, this is still of interest to you. We are seeing similar testing/positivity correlation dynamics as seen in the UK. This thread borrows/builds substantially from @profnfenton here:

https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1340032960284794881?s=20

3/

Upfront caveat: correlation does not mean causation, and it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions from simple testing data. However, it is important to determine whether lockdown policy (for its unmeasurable collateral damage) is informed by false/flawed test results.

Read 27 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

15 Dec 20

1/

Vaccine debate now brewing on (i) who gets it first, and (ii) vaccine rates required for herd-immunity & getting back to normal.

Public Health says no normal ‘til vax rates are 60-70% (*assumed* herd threshold).

The Toronto data says perhaps just 10.9%...

Let’s explore…

2/

I’ll get to the data in a moment, but first, I present two opposing viewpoints, then you can decide what the data says makes the most sense…

3a/

1st view, Dr. Yaffe today in Ontario:

“its gonna take months before…significant % of the pop vaxx’d--usually for infectious diseases 60-70% of the pop is needed for herd immunity; we’re not gonna get there until probably the summer”… 22m:30s:

Read 16 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

12 Dec 20

@katewand

Link thread of the powerful & thought-provoking short video essays produced by @katewand on lockdown/COVID culture. She's now produced 4 of these incredible videos to date, & frankly I’m a bit shocked her following hasn’t grown faster (although she’s now at 2.3K subs on YT).👇

@stacey_rudin

1. “Lockdown: The Right Side of History”

(essay by @stacey_rudin)

“In the COVID debate, there is a mainstream, 'popular' narrative, and a competing, 'unpopular' narrative — a 'fringe.' The former exploits the common, mediocre desire to be 'popular.'"