As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic
Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.
Any plan B needs in the end to bring UK govt to table to agree separation w iScotland. Without initial London agreement to a referendum or other route to indy, then political uncertainty and a rUK-Scotland stand-off likely to develop. EU govts would stand well back from this
In face of valid independence process, iScotland cd apply to EU through normal accession process. If in near(ish) future, & iScotland not diverged too far from meeting EU single mkt criteria & other regs, then process cd be as swift as 4-5 years.
iScotland as a 5 million, northern European state, democracy, market economy (& having been in EU for 47 yrs) wd not look technically or politically challenging to EU - more straightforward than W Balkans accession processes tho yes issues include currency, deficit.
There will be a transition out of UK, into EU. This wd be managed through a Scotland-EU association agreement.
European Economic Area (EEA) is not a transition route but an alternative to EU;EEA membership requires agreement of EU 27 & EEA3 & wd not be available on day 1 of indy
Most recent EU accessions have seen candidates hold referendums on joining EU after they have completed talks w EU. For iScotland, this wd mean those who oppose EU or even EEA membership cd express their views in such a vote.
Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec.
What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).
So the future potential iScotland-rUK border becomes much clearer through the EU-UK agreement, albeit iScotland in EU wd likely be in the UK/Ireland common travel area, & the relationship EU-UK will doubtless evolve to some extent (or more depending on future UK govts)
New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
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EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
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EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term
EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.
Thread
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Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
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Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
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Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland 1/
Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
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And as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out NI, like GB, faces major negative impact on services.
Not obvious why NI would somehow become a super hot FDI destination given all this plus associated uncertainty 3/
So what did we learn from Johnson's visit to Scotland?
That he's either so scared of a few boos from Scottish protesters &/or has such a naive media adviser that he left Bute house by the back door rather than face protesters again 1. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
We learnt Johnson has nothing to say to remain-voting Scotland, weak promise of some reheated funding is not meant to smooth huge hit of a no deal Brexit nor be a plausible media story
That Ruth Davidson 'whole heartedly backs' his Brexit strategy (really? there's a strategy?)
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We learnt Johnson thinks treating Merkel, Macron, Varadkar with contempt, as he bumbles round Faslane & Edinburgh, is his 'strategy' & appropriate
If the EU does give UK a 9 month extension (not certain, cd be less, cd be more) then what for Brexit & chances of a people's vote? thread
9 months wd give time to hold another EU referendum - but not that much time as it wd probably need 4-7 months.
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Parliament - which has not yet found a majority for anything on Brexit beyond delay (& triggering A50) - would have to choose to hold a people's vote & pass necessary legislation. This would need Labour & enough Tory MPs to back a PV with remain on the ballot paper.
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100 Tory MPs voted against May on A50 extension yesterday, 80 abstained - the pro-Brexit hardliners of various shades. They may try to topple May or force an election.
So timing cd be EP elections (which must act as a proxy EU referendum) then general election, then PV
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