Thread by @PedderSophie

Short health warning about French presidential polls 15 months before 2022 election. In Jan 2016, same distance from the 2017 vote, only one poll tested Macron—as a Socialist candidate. The far more obvious PS candidate was Hollande. (In the end it was Hamon, who got 6%) 1/5

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1353468526300954632

The assumption then was that the PS was capable of winning 18-20% of the 1st-round vote. And this, even if Mélenchon got 9-11%. Because there was no credible centrist to rob the left of centre-left voters (Bayou, who in the end withdrew and backed Macron, polled around 12%) 2/5

The overwhelming favourite in Jan 2016 on the right was Juppé. Polls gave him >30% of 1st-round vote. Sarkozy was the second favourite. (In the end the candidate was Fillon, who with 20% failed to get into the run-off) 3/5

In other words, each poll now should be treated with utmost caution. This one tests only Bertrand or Pécresse on the centre-right. On the left, it assumes (not unreasonably) a split PS/Green candidacy. Hidalgo’s chances depend heavily on uniting the two 4/5

Any attempt to add up mechanically the split votes at this point fails to take into account all the forces that brought Macron to the presidency: momentum, weak party allegiances, distrust of establishment, his emerging credibility, risk-taking, campaign performance—and luck 5/5