When you grow a carrot, & eat it & respire CO₂, you don't march the streets complaining it is destroying the climate. The carrot grows back (& may even degrade the land), but it is essentially a closed cycle (otherwise the planet would have imploded millions of years ago).
If you grow an energy crop, with a rotation of 1 year, it is like growing a carrot. There may be losses in the life cycle emissions, as there is when harvesting & transporting a carrot. Likewise, the land may get degraded. Food production impacts the environment, also bioenergy!
This does not mean the energy crop is "carbon neutral" & saves the climate, but it is not coal.
If you chop down the Amazon, & use it for biomass, it is extremely bad, will take 100s or 1000s or years to replace. It is very far from carbon neutral, getting closer to coal.
Do you start with bioenergy is potentially carbon neutral & potentially a part of the solution?
Or do you start with bioenergy is worse than coal, so don't even consider it?
Just blocking potential solutions with silly arguments is not going to save the climate!
I am reacting to the climate part of this video. I am not saying the Swedish forest model is good or bad. Though, the way of framing the climate part is childish, basically. There is lots to debate on bioenergy, but lets have an adult debate!
When I wrote "studies ranging from −100 to about 800 GtCO₂" back in 2018 I was being very conservative (there were no full uncertainty analyses then) rdcu.be/bHT2C
Good to see papers (now) being much more explicit about the uncertainty & range...
2/
I have problems with the remaining carbon budgets presented as a single number, instead of a range. Is there any other climate variable presented as a one-sided probability? The ECS, eg, is presented as a range. rdcu.be/bHT2C
Global car sales shrank by ~14% in 2020
* Sales of electric cars grew ~50% (from a very low level)
* Sales of SUVs declined ~10%, but share of sales went from 39% to 42%
Emissions from SUVs are estimated to have seen a slight increase of 0.5% in 2020, despite global emissions down ~7%.
"Despite the effects of the pandemic on overall car use, SUVs consumed more oil last year than they did in 2019"
2/
"Oil consumption from SUVs reached 5.5 million barrels per day in 2020"
"Remarkably, we estimate that the increase in the overall SUV fleet in 2020 cancelled out the declines in oil consumption by SUVs that resulted from Covid-related lockdown measures"
3/
1. Oil & gas companies still expect the world to consume large quantities of oil & gas in 2050. That view would seem to put the oil giants in conflict with the IPCC.
2. [O]il companies & the IPCC alike rely on a contentious strategy known as negative emissions — the practice of pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. In theory, NETs would buy the world a little more time to phase out the use of fossil fuels ...
3. "[N]one of these models are forecast machines" @DetlefvanVuuren
"It's just an element, a tool to explore different trajectories on the basis of the knowledge we have today & to see what ... might encounter."
Both critics & modelers agree such nuance is often lost
1. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) often assume the same carbon prices in each region (left, orange dots): this is efficient but leads to large inequities (right).
More equitable distributions of carbon prices (left, blue dots) is less efficient.
2. @NB_pik addresses this problem in a new paper: "The core finding of this research is the strongly nonlinear trade-off between cost-efficiency and sovereignty in achieving the long-term PA climate target in an equitable way."
Small changes to efficiency have big equity gains.
3. The gaps between uniform & differentiated carbon prices (first tweet) was modified to create the trade-off curve (previous tweet). This was done by applying an exponential function to adjust pairs of regional prices.
Is the "core finding" dependent on the "exponential"?
Some updated carbon budgets from @CONSTRAIN_EU
→ 5 years left for 66% <1.5°C (HT @rtmcswee)
To what degree should we look at 66% <1.5°C?
* According to the 2018 #SR15, there are no scenarios 66% <1.5°C
* Huge gap between 50% 1.5°C & 66% 2°C (~1.7-1.8°C)
We have become so obsessed with these arbitrary lines at 1.5°C & 2°C, but I think the more relevant point, is that there is a HUGE gap between 1.5°C & 2°C.
While 1.5°C might be too late, there is still lots to fight for.
A slight technical point. 66% <1.5°C is probably around 1.3-1.4°C for 50%. We are at ~1.2°C today, so a 0.1°C increase or 200GtCO₂ is quite consistent with the remaining budget for 66% <1.5%...
[The 0.1°C ~ 200GtCO₂ is based on the TCRE, see link in previous tweet]