VACCINE SURVEILLANCE AND STRATEGY

THIS LOOKS HOPEFUL, subject to provisos.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
PROVISOS
- everyone involved in the chain of events knows about this
-AND there is effective working software to deliver notifications and collate and report incidents
-AND everyone delivers the reports and data
-testing report software links effectively to vaccine software
- What about surveillance of one dose interval? There are separate studies dealing with HealthcareWorker surveillance (SIREN) and care home residents & staff (Vivaldi), Community Infection Survey (ONS), routine data sources eg via GP software.
This refers to “the earliest eligible groups have been offered a FULL course of vaccination”

What about monitoring of one dose effectiveness over the interval between doses?

How systematically is that being done?
I’m pretty sure from comments from others SOMETHING is being done
It would be very reassuring for the public if this was well publicised

Maybe a good subject for @TimHarford and #MoreOrLess?

Both the what monitoring and the how, and the extent that those who are supposed to be engaged in supply the data know what to do and how to do it.

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More from @fascinatorfun

26 Jan
🦠🦠 20,089 cases. (Lockdown working in most places)
⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1631 (28 day cut off deaths) - 1756 (60 day deaths - +ve test and Covid on death certificate.

⚰️💔⚰️🦠⚰️💔 Total CERTAIN Covid deaths 112,951. A marked undercount

Calculations tweet 2. ImageImage
Based on 112,951 Covid deaths

😱💔⚰️ 1 in every 602 U.K. citizens have already died of COVID. (More like 1 in ever 590)

That is shocking and shameful and inexcusable. Carnage.

Grief and anger and fear.

But I see no shame or humility from those at the top.
The downward trend in cases the last three weeks is now being seen not only in in admissions but MAY now be moving into a tiny reduction in ventilation beds. Fingers crossed.

🦠Cases. I like to compare Mondays by swab date (due to processing lag).

The reduction is marked. Image
Read 9 tweets
26 Jan
On 6 Jan the National Guard Commander had had their normal powers removed from them by the Pentagon.

The latter says this was as a result of the June 2020 interventions. But the intelligence was already in on the 6 Jan insurrection

So why not restored? Image
That seems pretty deliberate to me, especially when you see the timescales involved...and the fact the National Guard were “just down the street” 2 miles away.

Surely Trump was briefed in some shape or form.

What orders came from him? Image
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
From Navy SEAL to Part of the Angry Mob Outside the Capitol - The New York Times

In the Navy, he was trained as an expert in sorting information from disinformation, a clandestine commando who spent years working in intelligence paired with the C.I.A.
nytimes.com/2021/01/26/us/…
2/. He once mocked the idea of shadowy antidemocratic plots as “tinfoil hat” thinking.

How does he go from that to believing that the election was stolen...and in DONALD TRUMP, liar in chief?

It seems extraordinary

@RichardBentall
He was even on the receiving end of an Alex Jones conspiracy driven type attack himself..

Makes you wonder.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
Risk of severe COVID established early in infection

Cambridge Uni researchers found that early in the infection, the immune systems of people with severe COVID produced higher levels of inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-alpha v people with mild disease
theconversation.com/risk-of-severe…
“The people with severe disease also had fewer immune cells that are known to specifically target the virus, such as T cells and B cells.”
“In other words, early in infection, the people with severe disease had lower numbers of immune cells that could target the virus & higher levels of inflammation.”

Would an early blood test to identify those at risk be practical?

Target with anti inflammatories?
Read 5 tweets
25 Jan
Usual Weekend/ Monday reporting lag ⚠️

🦠🦠22,195 cases, - a welcome decrease ( but ⚠️- processing down Friday/ Sat/ Sun)

⚰️⚰️⚰️592 (28day cut off) deaths by date of report

12 consecutive days with over 1k deaths by date of death
Expect hundreds more to be added to below data ImageImageImage
VACCINATION 💉 news is cheering.

Now over 7 million doses delivered to 6,573,570 people.

WELL DONE VACCINATION AND LOGISTICS TEAMS.

One would hope this would impact on death levels noticeably very soon and is sustained if the durability of one dose holds up Image
More detailed information here from @john_actuary

Whilst there is no doubt that a lot of people have received a first jab, I remain concerned about how it will hold up from the period when a second dose is due (or overdue depending on perspective) by mid March.
Read 7 tweets
24 Jan
Harrowing reality of a coronavirus ward - where exhausted medics fight to keep patients alive and some don't make it | UK News | Sky News

How can qualified scientists play this down.

In the morgue this time the corpses are a decade younger than in wave 1 news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Excellent if sorrowful report from @JasonFarrellSky

The only correction I would make is we have already passed 110k Covid deaths (all from the Gov Covid website )

This was yesterday. A conservative measure. Today we passed 110k Covid deaths

It really hits home when you can see Tony Brown struggling to breath and talk, only to hear he died a couple of days later, leaving his widow, Linda grieving. He thinks he caught Covid at work delivering bread. Poor social distancing and poor mask wearing.
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