Two ways to view European Commission decision to demand "export controls" on EU-manufactured vaccines

Vaccine nationalism? (worry)

or

A policy to create new information to solve a problem? (hope)

A short thread 1/...

VACCINE NATIONALISM 2/

First, the worry.

Hoarding. The EU is one of the few places that can manufacture vaccines.

To end the pandemic, the EU must **EXPORT** vaccines globally.

A EU vaccine export ban would be BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD for global public health.
VACCINE NATIONALISM 3/

EU export limits are also not surprising. It was predicted early, often, and by many.

The new policy results from a failure to globally commit to solve the distribution problem, despite Covax efforts.

(eg, this from July 2020)
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
VACCINE NATIONALISM 4/

Globally, LITTLE PROGRESS has been made since the issue surfaced last summer.

The last US administration was disengaged. It was a *HUGE* part of the problem.

Hopefully, the Biden administration will engage and contribute. Quickly.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…
VACCINE NATIONALISM 5/

EU vaccine export limits are also consistent with its March 2020 export controls on PPE.

THEN: France, Germany refused to export PPE to Italy. Brussels brokered intra-EU sharing with new controls on exports to non-EU countries.

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
VACCINE NATIONALISM 5/

The EU's March 2020 export controls on PPE were motivated by shortages, panic, and lack of information. Just like today and vaccines.

The March policy got scaled back, was temporary, and did generate *some* (a little) information.

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
6/

Let's turn to HOPE...

Today, are EU vaccine export checks a policy to create new information to solve a problem???

Policymakers and the public DO LACK INFORMATION on vaccine capacity, production, sales, exports, imports, and prices. That **IS** a problem.

SO THEY PANIC.
7/

POLICY HOPE: Continuously updated INFORMATION on vaccine capacity, production, sales, exports, imports, and prices would help.

(The same policy arguments made about PPE market transparency in spring 2020 apply to vaccines market transparency today.)

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
8/

Main difference between PPE in spring 2020 and vaccines today is the geographic SOURCE of production capacity.

Today, a lot of vaccine capacity is EU, UK, US, Switzerland.

These countries are used to transparency and should provide it as a model.

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
9/

Brussels,

Do NOT let this become vaccine nationalism.

If you must do vaccine export checks, create massive amounts of new public information to solve the transparency problem. Set up a G20 reporting mechanism.

And shame others to do it too. ENDS/

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More from @ChadBown

27 Jan
NEW: China’s purchases of US goods were over 40 percent short of its total commitment for 2020 found in the Phase One trade agreement.

Official December US export statistics released today, closing the book on US-China goods trade for 2020... 1/
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The Phase One deal has 3 sectoral targets. Of those, China's purchases of US farm products were least bad. (Makes political sense)

According to US export statistics, China's purchases came up short in 2020 by
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2/ Image
For #TradeTwitter, of interest is the sizeable GAP in farm purchases between Chinese import and US export statistics.

Ie, China's purchases of covered agricultural products reached 82% of target based on US export data BUT ONLY 64% based on Chinese import data. 🤔🤔🤔

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This is one of the fears identified in this piece

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YESTERDAY: USTR Lighthizer & China's Liu He met to discuss Trump's Phase One deal.

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Through July, China’s purchases of US agricultural products were only at 39% (US export statistics) or 46% (Chinese import statistics) of their 2020 year-to-date targets set out in the agreement...

[soybean GIF choices pretty lame. sorry] 2/
CHINA'S PURCHASES OF ENERGY PRODUCTS:

Through July, China’s purchases of US energy products were only at 24% (US export statistics) or 17% (Chinese import statistics) of their year-to-date targets set out in the agreement... 3/
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