Sinan Aral Profile picture
28 Jan, 26 tweets, 11 min read
[#GameStop Thread] This week, social media coordination created a spike in the @GameStop stock that rose over 1700% as retail investors coordinated over information on @reddit and other social media to pump the stock. 1/8
Millions of small investors, egged on by social media, employed a classic Wall Street tactic to put the squeeze — on Wall Street, especially short sellers. 2/8

nytimes.com/2021/01/27/bus…
I covered this possibility in detail in my book The Hype Machine 👇. In Chapter 2 "The End of Reality" I discussed how social media memes could be used to inflate stock prices and cause bubbles. 3/8

sinanaral.io/books
For example, I described the Hack Crash of 2013 in which a viral false news tweet by Syrian hackers who had infiltrated the AP News twitter handle wiped out $140B in equity value in a matter of minutes. 👇 4/8 Image
But, more relevant to the #GameStop story, I discussed, in detail, how coordinate news propagated over social media can support 'pump and dump' schemes that inflate the price of stock artificially. 👇 5/8 ImageImage
I also described the large scale statistical evidence for the impact of social media on financial markets.👇 6/8 Image
I'm glad people are coming around to the threat of the "meme-stock bubble"... 👇 (But I can't say I didn't warn us). 7/8

marker.medium.com/gamestop-prove…
The next question is "what do we do?" *Stay tuned*... On the heals of "The Hype Machine" book, in which I tried to address solutions to our social media crisis in detail, we're preparing a big announcement at the @mitide to move this us further down the road toward solutions. 8/8
The GameStop effect is extending to AMC. The theater chain soared 300% at the open to the highest since 2018 trib.al/YJeie4b 9/
Note my coverage in the book of the way the Hype Machine is coupled to automated systems that analyze and amplify these types of stock movements. I predict an autopsy will reveal the same thing going on here with #GameStop and #amcstock 👇 10/ ImageImage
Robinhood blocks purchase of GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry stock

theverge.com/2021/1/28/2225…
Not sure people understand all the perverse incentives here, either on the retail side or the institutional side.👇🏽It will be interesting to see what the inevitable SEC investigation turns up.
Robinhood raised $1 billion after halting GameStop purchases.
cnn.com/2021/01/29/inv…
Robinhood’s Customers Are Hedge Funds Like Citadel, Its Users Are the Product

vice.com/en/article/qjp…
The plot thickens: Google is salvaging Robinhood’s one-star rating by deleting nearly 100,000 negative reviews.
theverge.com/2021/1/28/2225…
A real life Robinhood story (one that might not end well)

bostonglobe.com/2021/01/29/bus…
Image
Robinhood explains its decision to block buying on #gamestop @ChrisCuomo pushes back. HT/ @tomeckles
Keith Gill Drove the GameStop Reddit Mania. The trader known as "DeepF—ingValue" on the WallStreetBets forum told the @WSJ “I didn’t expect this.” wsj.com/articles/keith…
His risky bet made him a millionaire on paper. It could've gone very differently.
cnn.com/videos/busines…
Untethering markets from economic reality is a recipe for economic instability 👇🏽
Opinion piece by @scmallaby in The Washington Post: The good guys in the GameStop story? It’s the hedge funds and short sellers..
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
As exoected, #GameStop #AMC and Silver Tumble... wsj.com/livecoverage/g…
This was so predictable 👇🏽. And not yesterday or Friday, but early last week.

As GameStop stock crumbles, newbie traders reckon with heavy losses.
washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
The Sharks arrive at the GameStop party...
finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fun…
Image
My OPED in @wapo on this 👇🏽
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

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More from @sinanaral

9 Jan
[🚨 The Splinternet Manifests🚨] We are now witnessing the factionalization of our information ecosystem in real time. Our human network is being torn apart, into two polarized tribes, as a result of the violence that took place at the Capital on Wednesday... A few thoughts: 1/
First, @facebook banned Trump indefinitely citing the danger of incitements to violence... 2/
nytimes.com/2021/01/07/tec…
Then, @Twitter followed suit. But, since it acted late, had to justify its decision based on two of his more innocuous tweets, whereas his earlier content had been more incendiary (see: ). This will embolden claims of bias & censorship from Trump allies. 3/
Read 15 tweets
6 Jan
On 10/26 I predicted a version of what is unfolding in the Capital today. I wasn't alone. Scientists & experts have warned for months (years) of the powder keg brewing in our information ecosystem. How does this happen & how can we stop it? Read on👇🏽link.medium.com/maKhkqBRPcb
As we predicted: The storming of the Capital was organized on social media 👇🏽
nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/…
"Research shows that “rumors form an essential part of the riot process.” They mobilize ordinary people to do what they would not normally do. They stoke violence through fear. They commit protestors to a line of action they would not normally take and can’t easily retreat from."
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep 20
[🚨New Book🚨] Today is the BIG DAY! With the help of so many amazing people, I'm SO excited to launch my first book, THE HYPE MACHINE, today!

sinanaral.io/books

For those of you who like to sample before you buy, here is a sneak peak at the book in 12 acts 1/
[Chapter 1] opens with the annexation of Crimea as a leading example of the geopolitical impact of the New Social Age. It provides new evidence on the role of social media in the Crimean annexation - the first forceful redrawing of European borders since WWII. 2/
[Chapter 2] traces the Rise of Fake News all the way to the End of Reality, covering its impact on elections & democracy, business & markets and our public health like #Covid_19. It covers the science of fake news and the implications of the rise cheap, ubiquitous #deepfakes 3/
Read 14 tweets
9 Sep 20
I think this is one of the main entry points into the debate: Regardless of levels there's a debate about the marginal effect of technology which is largely on the side of narrowing consumption deeply (within) and broadly (across) choice areas 1/t
Then there's the question about the impact of a marginal change: levels data suggests narrow consumption is not the norm, but what do marginal changes in consumption do to beliefs and behaviors (that's largely unknown) 2/
I think the argument that there are large swaths of society that only consume narrowly and don't overlap and that technology caused that is wrong but is also a straw man 3/
Read 13 tweets
14 Aug 20
[🚨New Paper🚨] Published today in Management Science @INFORMS with @dhillon_p on "Digital Paywall Design."

We collaborated with the @nytimes to analyze a natural experiment on how "digital paywall design" impacts publishers' subscription rates and revenues. 1/
The study tracked the browsing behavior of 177M unique visitors who accumulated over 777M page views, from which we constructed a 30M person quasi-experimental panel over the 7-month study. 2/
We used a quasi-experiment to track how changes to the @nytimes paywall design affected content consumption, subscriptions and revenues. 3/
Read 9 tweets
21 May 20
[🚨NEW WORKING PAPER🚨] As local governments reopen, we study how policies in one region affect mobility & social distancing in other regions & the consequences of uncoordinated policy responses to #Covid_19. 1/

bit.ly/2XgLV55
The key takeaway is a state or county's policies significantly affect mobility in other states & counties -- not just in geographically proximate states but often a great distance through long distance travel & influence over social media and other communication technology. 2/
We combined daily, county-level policy data w/ movement from over 27M mobile devices, social networks among 220M FB users, daily weather from 62K weather stations & county-level census data to estimate geographic & social network spillovers in regional policies across the US. 3/
Read 22 tweets

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