Vlad on the @elonmusk Clubhouse now is sinking as usual, he hasn't apologised...

AGAIN...

SMH, 101 in how not to deal with a crisis

How hard is it to say 'sorry, we let you down' as the first thing, not 'I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Robinhood'

Elon immediately cringed
But Vlad just disclosed that Robinhood has had a $3B request for cash from clearing house (I think) which they didn't have (this is new info I think), hence the raise - we all knew this, but not the number

At the heart of the $3B was the increase in VAR (as many have noted)
$3B request from the NSCC (Nat Sec Clearing Corp) and then they called the NSCC and it was reduced to $1.4B
Then they discussed more, and agreed to restrict trading, and the number went to $700m which RH could put up

"We knew this was a bad outcome for customers"

Well at least that is a vague mea culpa, but not enough
It's interesting, Elon is pushing him in a good way, he's trying to help him explain the situation better, but Vlad is just a bit rigid (sounds like a lawyer half the time / corp speak, but then again, this is hard for anyone to deal with too)
They raised more money, and they should be able to have fewer limits on Monday open. Elon pushed "will there be any limits", and the answer is yes, there will be some limits, sounds like limits for the larger players

He still hasn't apologised :/

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More from @Darky999

1 Feb
On this now, room already full with 6k folk! Image
Elon just invited Vlad from RH into the room :D
First topic is 'when will we get to Mars', and @elonmusk answer is 5.5 years...

That would be pretty bullish for space travel!
Read 6 tweets
1 Feb
This wasn't picked up much (that I saw)...

This is Al Kelly, Chairman & CEO of Visa Inc talking about Crypto in their earnings call 3 days ago...

As @elonmusk said, it's inevitable (well that might have been about crypto, not sure!)



@RaoulGMI
"Today, 35 of the leading digital currency platforms and wallets have already chosen to issue Visa, including coin-based Crypto.com, BlackFi, Fold and BitPanda. These wallet relationships represent the potential for more than 50 million Visa credentials...."
"The next leading network has a fraction of that. And it goes without saying, to the extent a specific digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there's no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today."

CEO Visa Inc
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep 20
RANT:

So Powell mini-crashes stocks as markets want MOAR from him (markets never get enough do they...)

This freaked out Trump, so predictably he touts vaccines for almost immediate release (soon they will have been FDA approved in the PAST from now... 😬)

1/N

@HRGPFOREVER
But pump didn't work, markets know it's just BS talk...

OH GOD NAZZY IS DOWN!

So Trump has to be Pelosi's best bud (he finds really hard to do), but he won't speak with Pelosi as he just can't (for some unknown reason a POTUS can't speak to another politician... OK 🤡)

2/N
So Moooonooooochin gets to be the go-between, and he actually can talk with Pelosi without one of them marching out in DISGUST AS THE OTHER SIDE IS BEING UNFAIR (cry cry cry 😢😭)

And Trump wants MOAR stimulus right now, RIGHT NOW GODDAMMIT!

BIG CHECKS!!!

3/N
Read 14 tweets
16 Sep 20
#bitcoin volatility ranges vs other assets a mini thread:

(as measured by the BVOL index = rolling 30-day annualised vol)

Dec 2017: 81-162
Sept 2020 (last 30 days, mid-Aug to mid-Sept): 27-44

Price c. $10,000 both times

Which is more of a bubble?!

1/N
Sept 2020 (last 30 days) volatility for:

Silver (VXSLV): 46-84
GDX (VXGDX): 41-52
Nasdaq (VXN): 27-48
Gold (GVZ): 20-28
Oil (OVX): 30-59

Bitcoin (BVOL): 27-44

So Silver and GDX, Nasdaq and Oil are currently more volatile

Gold is less volatile

2/N
Compared to December 2017, or indeed any time around that time, $BTC is now far less volatile in general (everything had a vol spike in March 2020), although still TOO volatile to rival gold, but give it time..

3/N
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep 20
Quick macro thoughts... Will probs be a mini thread...

S&P (or QQQ...) still undecided, could go either way; lower vol right now means insurance (i.e. long vol trades) is cheaper

Duration (30Y USTs) hanging at 1.4%, VXTLT <15, and as low as since pre-COVID (probs bullish)
Gold has been coiling up again, GVZ went below 20 briefly on Monday, it's c. 21 now, if it breaks down to mid-teens again (like July) then could be a great buying opportunity for LEAP calls (lock in the low vol)

Oil is struggling, lots of debate on supply/demand, and on USD...
If Oil stays <$40 then CPI should be softer in Q4; also note OVX is c. 40 (was >50 a few days ago), and materially higher vol than August when 32

Would recommend watching Oil closely, as the ramifications to CPI (with a lag) are important for entire Inf vs Def debate
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep 20
This is a must watch video from @GeorgeGammon

Interestingly I came to the exact same conclusion on Thursday last week (b4 this video came out), having spoken to REAL PEOPLE in CBs and also Commercial Banks, to understand the flows and mechanisms

1/N

TL;DR is that M2 can increase due to QE, when non-banks (e.g. pension funds, insurance co's, biz's, retail investors) sell bonds VIA the bank to the Fed (bank = intermediary); as the bank does credit the bond seller with new deposits, hence M2 does increase

2/N
If a bank sells its own bonds (from its B/S) to the Fed, there is NO increase in M2, as this is simply a shift of Reserves from the bank to the TGA (i.e. the Treasury) - both have Fed accounts, there is no M2 impact

3/N
Read 10 tweets

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