1/4 I had mistakenly thought that with the three and a half year sentence #Navalny would be in prison during the Russian presidential elections in 2024.
2/4 But since the previously served year of home arrest counts toward the sentence, he should be released just before the elections in March 2024. Could it be a sign that Putin plans to leave by 2024 and organize snap elections, transferring power to a successor?
3/4 Unfortunately, there will always be the possibility of adding to Navalny's sentence at a later date. At the same time, it is unclear what would complicate the transfer of power more – Navalny imprisoned or free.
4/4 Doesn't matter whether Putin will transfer power to somebody else or to himself.

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More from @baunov

25 Jan
THREAD 1/7 Saturday’s protests were also noticeable for the lack of humorous slogans and placards in comparison with previous Russian protests . The protesters were very serious, even gloomy. From my current piece carnegie.ru/commentary/837…
2/7 The slogans lacked the usual appeals to the law, democracy, and the constitution. This protest was not about calling on the authorities to follow the law, count votes fairly, allow candidates to run. It was a march against those in power bit.ly/36d6zIm
3/7 Unlike the protests that followed the murder of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Saturday’s Moscow rally was not dominated by representatives of the capital’s liberal intelligentsia bit.ly/36d6zIm
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct 20
1/7 The new round of sanctions introduced by the EU against Russia over the poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny have three key aspects. My take here carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/7They target individual people and organizations, rather than entire sectors of the economy; they don’t follow the suggestion of targeting the subjects of Navalny’s investigations; and they don’t distinguish between the siloviki (security services) hawks and in-system liberals
3/7 The list does not mention the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although judging by multiple public statements made on the issue, canceling the pipeline project is seen as the most effective punishment bit.ly/3dF8t7m
Read 7 tweets
9 Oct 20
1/8 Russia is not charging in to help its ally Armenia because it doesn’t just matter who is under attack, but who they are under attack from. My take on Russia's present role in #NagornoKarabakh carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/8Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova), Azerbaijan has not been an enemy state for Russia. Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO, but it has never voiced any official ambition to join the alliance bit.ly/3jK43OH
3/8 Among the former Soviet states, Azerbaijan has always been an example of how to follow a foreign policy that is entirely independent from Russia, while maintaining a good relationship with Moscow bit.ly/3jK43OH
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct 20
1/5 Now the old methods are proving less effective in forcing Navalny outside the already narrow Russian political space. My new short piece carnegie.ru/commentary/828…
2/5 It’s his increased visibility and unwitting mythologization brought about by the poisoning that have prompted the accusations that Navalny is a CIA agent parroting a foreign paymaster’s charges against Putin personally bit.ly/3jzeZOX
3/5 Putin, who believes that enemies deserve respect, while traitors do not, doesn’t want to do Navalny the honor of giving him the status of an enemy.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct 20
1/7 Among much real and imagined bad news from Russia, this really is awful bit.ly/2SeZaRJ
2/7 Russia’s Investigative Committee has arrested staff & doctors of companies that provided surrogacy services to single men (in reality, some of them in gay couples), is removing children from their families, & threatening to charge the fathers with trafficking children.
3/7 There is ongoing discussion about the moral and legal aspects of surrogacy around the world. But the arguments the Russian authorities are using in this particular case have nothing to do with protecting women or children.
Read 7 tweets
8 Sep 20
1/6 Lukashenko was quicker that others to offer a conspiracy theory about Navalny’s poisoning that points the finger at the West. bit.ly/2Gzxl3K
2/6 The Belarusian president’s intervention in the Navalny affair ties it to his country’s unrest, even if the demonstrations did not factor into the decision to attack the opposition leader.
3/6 Few will believe the version of events implied by Lukashenko’s purported recording of a phone call between officials in Berlin and Warsaw. But it is meant to provide Russia’s state propaganda with yet another dubious narrative with which to muddy the waters.
Read 6 tweets

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