1/4 I had mistakenly thought that with the three and a half year sentence #Navalny would be in prison during the Russian presidential elections in 2024.
2/4 But since the previously served year of home arrest counts toward the sentence, he should be released just before the elections in March 2024. Could it be a sign that Putin plans to leave by 2024 and organize snap elections, transferring power to a successor?
3/4 Unfortunately, there will always be the possibility of adding to Navalny's sentence at a later date. At the same time, it is unclear what would complicate the transfer of power more – Navalny imprisoned or free.
4/4 Doesn't matter whether Putin will transfer power to somebody else or to himself.
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