1) In his news conference on Tuesday evening, Premier François Legault, Health Minister Christian Dubé and chief public health officer Horacio Arruda did not address at all the #COVID19 surge in schools. In this thread, however, I will dwell again on this important subject.
2) It’s the facts that compel me to do so, given that the number of classrooms that schools across Quebec have had to shutter since a week ago Tuesday is nearly 400. What’s more, the Education Ministry reported that three more schools closed because of #COVID19 outbreaks.
3) In Laval, Hillcrest Academy announced Tuesday it was shutting temporarily as well after confirming 16 active #COVID19 cases. At the current pace, the province is poised to report as early as Wednesday more than 3,000 cases among students and staff in less than four weeks.
4) If the much more transmissible B117 variant gains a foothold in Quebec, it'll no doubt spread through schools as well as stores that are to reopen on Monday. In that context, it’s hard to understand why the Premier and Arruda did not speak about how to better protect schools.
5) To the contrary, the Premier suggested that CEGEPS, or junior colleges, and universities reopen soon, but with no clear plan on exactly how to do this. Lifting restrictions without detailed guidance risks accelerating the transmission of the new, more contagious variants.
6) Meanwhile, the drop in #COVID19 hospitalizations belie the very real threat the three variants pose as Quebec eases #pandemic restrictions. In Montreal, where half of surgeries are being postponed, the number of such hospitalizations declined by 19 to 524 on Tuesday.
7) The metropolis posted 536 #COVID19 cases (after a weekend drop in testing), up from 343 the day before. Still, Montreal’s seven-day rolling average was 24.86 cases per 100,000 residents, just below Harvard University's stay-at-home threshold. Please see the chart below.
8) At the neighborhood level, community transmission remained high in five health districts, with Rivière-des-Prairies-Anjou-Montreal-Est claiming the highest number of #COVID19 cases. Yet it appears it's business as usual when it comes to running elementary and high schools.
9) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks plummeted by 44 to 1,293 on Tuesday, suggesting that Quebec’s nightly curfew and closing of non-essential businesses have been successful. Next Monday, though, those same businesses will reopen.
10) The one potential bright spot may be found in eldercare homes, with the first faint sign that the first shot of the #COVID19 vaccine may be proving effective in those living in long-term care centres. The number of new cases in those centres dropped by 11.97% since Monday.
11) By comparison, the number of new cases in private seniors’ residences — where most occupants have not yet been vaccinated — decreased by 8.83%. Obviously, a one-day difference between the two does not a trend make. We’ll see whether this trend holds over the coming days.
12) Sadly, at the current pace Quebec is projected to cross the 10,000 (!) #COVID19 death threshold by Sunday. On Tuesday, the province added another 36 fatalities and Montreal declared six for a death toll of 4,333. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

4 Feb
1) Montreal on Wednesday reported the total number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by 67 to 549 since a week ago, with most clusters erupting in schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will gauge the potential impact that reopening stores Monday will have on viral transmission. Image
2) Outbreaks in the workplace are linked to the second greatest number of #COVID19 cases after those in hospitals and eldercare homes. The manufacturing sector was responsible for most of the outbreaks in Montreal workplaces last week. Please review the chart below. Image
3) Clusters of #COVID19 rose by two to 22 in Montreal’s retail stores. This slight increase doesn't augur well for the reopening of these businesses Monday, especially as authorities are bracing for the more contagious B117 variant to hit Quebec possibly as early as next month Image
Read 9 tweets
2 Feb
1) As #COVID19 continued to subside in hospitals and in the workplace across Quebec Monday, it nonetheless surged in schools, raising questions as to whether the government intends to beef up its plans to curb transmission of the #coronavirus in classrooms.
2) On Friday, the Quebec Education Ministry reported that five schools had to close temporarily because of #COVID19 outbreaks, up by two from the day before. Over the weekend and into Monday, another four schools had to shut, three in Montreal and one in Longueuil.
3) What’s more, the Education Ministry revealed that schools had to shutter another 101 classrooms Friday due to #COVID19 exposure, bringing the total to 1,008. In addition, there were 2,662 active cases among students and staff, up by 193 in a day. Please see the chart below. Image
Read 10 tweets
30 Jan
1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s nightly curfew and closing of non-essential businesses, the #pandemic is trending down in nearly every category except two: daycares and schools. In this thread, I will assess whether the current measures are protecting them enough.
2) Before focusing on schools and daycares, though, it’s worth noting that the number of people hospitalized for #COVID19 dropped by 47 to 1,217 across Quebec on Friday. That total is also down by 175 from the day the curfew came into effect.
3) Declining #COVID19 hospitalizations are most notable in Montreal. The city reported 593 on Friday, down from 744 about three weeks ago. Of the city’s 17 hospitals, five reported one or two new admissions and the rest observed decreases.
Read 11 tweets
20 Jan
1) Premier François Legault highlighted four health districts in Montreal where #COVID19 cases are skyrocketing. He noted that these districts have as many as 450 infections per 100,000 residents. In fact, the latest numbers are even higher in those districts.
2) Transmission of the #coronavirus is the highest in the health district of Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, with 601.8 active #COVID19 cases per 100,000 population. I’ve been warning about Saint-Léonard for weeks, and Legault is now calling for more testing in the four districts.
3) A senior Montreal health official I interviewed Tuesday told me that some Montrealers are still reluctant to get tested for the #coronavirus. As high as the numbers are in those four districts, a boost in testing would likely lead to even more #COVID19 cases.
Read 14 tweets
19 Jan
1) Hospitalizations for #COVID19 rebounded on Monday by 31 to reach 1,491 — a clear sign the second wave still poses a dire threat in the province. ICU stays inched up by two to 217. In this thread, I will try to explain a couple of seemingly conflicting trends in the #pandemic.
2) On Jan. 8, Quebec posted a high of 3,127 #COVID19 cases. Ten days later, the province declared 1,634 infections. In fact, the number should be lower, 1,434 cases, since technically 200 belong to the tally reported on Sunday but were only disclosed Monday because of delays.
3) Is this a sign that the province’s curfew and shutting of non-essential businesses are working? A senior Montreal health official to whom I spoke attributed the decline in #COVID19 cases to a drop in testing. Authorities carried out 10,000 fewer tests over the weekend.
Read 11 tweets
18 Jan
1) Some observers are already suggesting Quebec may be turning a corner in the #pandemic by noting the province has reported three days of declining #COVID19 hospitalizations and a steady drop in active cases. In this thread, I will try to show why this view may be premature.
2) Quebec counted a total of 2,596 people with #COVID19 in the province’s private seniors’ residences and long-term care centres Sunday — one of the highest daily totals in the second wave. Unfortunately, some of these individuals will need to be hospitalized in the coming days.
3) What’s more, the number of active #COVID19 cases (20,636) should not be considered accurate because authorities acknowledged Sunday that a delay in the transmission of data resulted in a drop in the number of new cases declared. This should be corrected by Monday.
Read 9 tweets

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