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Aaron Derfel

30 Jan, 11 tweets, 5 min read

1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s nightly curfew and closing of non-essential businesses, the #pandemic is trending down in nearly every category except two: daycares and schools. In this thread, I will assess whether the current measures are protecting them enough.

2) Before focusing on schools and daycares, though, it’s worth noting that the number of people hospitalized for #COVID19 dropped by 47 to 1,217 across Quebec on Friday. That total is also down by 175 from the day the curfew came into effect.

3) Declining #COVID19 hospitalizations are most notable in Montreal. The city reported 593 on Friday, down from 744 about three weeks ago. Of the city’s 17 hospitals, five reported one or two new admissions and the rest observed decreases.

4) Meanwhile, at the rate #COVID19 cases are falling in Montreal, the city is poised next week to drop below Harvard University’s threshold of 25 cases per 100,000 residents. On Friday, the city posted a rate of 26.63, and 537 new cases, the lowest since Dec. 11.

5) But schools and daycares have been bucking these trends. The Quebec Health Ministry disclosed that 115 daycares had #COVID19 outbreaks on Friday, up by five from the previous day. Clusters were reported in 13 more schools for a total of 157.

6) In contrast, the number of #COVID19 clusters in the workplace decreased by 16 to 550 and down from 581 the day Quebec closed non-essential businesses. During this same period, outbreaks in health-care institutions fell by two dozen across the province to 438.

7) When Premier François Legault announced the curfew on Jan. 6, the union representing daycare workers argued the government wasn’t doing enough to protect them. This was after reports that workers had been using substandard masks for months.

8) Many teachers have also complained that Quebec is not doing enough to protect them and their students. On Friday, the Quebec Education Ministry revealed that 50 more classrooms had to be shuttered because of #COVID19 for a total of 907. See the chart below.

9) Given that Quebec is continuing to administer low numbers of vaccines (3,071 on Friday) and the province confirmed two new #COVID19 cases caused by the B117 variant (for a total of eight), it’s time the government considered more measures to protect daycares and schools.

10) Finally, Montreal added 13 more #COVID19 fatalities Friday to a death toll of 4,298. The chart below hints at the possibility the wave of death may be beginning to subside. But too many times in this #pandemic have such drops been followed by surges. End of thread. Stay safe.

Addendum: Sorry for the late thread. The reason I set aside finishing last night's one is I was trying to confirm whether a teacher's death at Vanguard School was #COVID-related. The Education Minister’s press aide told me Friday it wasn’t. My condolences to the teacher's family.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

20 Jan

1) Premier François Legault highlighted four health districts in Montreal where #COVID19 cases are skyrocketing. He noted that these districts have as many as 450 infections per 100,000 residents. In fact, the latest numbers are even higher in those districts.

2) Transmission of the #coronavirus is the highest in the health district of Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, with 601.8 active #COVID19 cases per 100,000 population. I’ve been warning about Saint-Léonard for weeks, and Legault is now calling for more testing in the four districts.

3) A senior Montreal health official I interviewed Tuesday told me that some Montrealers are still reluctant to get tested for the #coronavirus. As high as the numbers are in those four districts, a boost in testing would likely lead to even more #COVID19 cases.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

19 Jan

1) Hospitalizations for #COVID19 rebounded on Monday by 31 to reach 1,491 — a clear sign the second wave still poses a dire threat in the province. ICU stays inched up by two to 217. In this thread, I will try to explain a couple of seemingly conflicting trends in the #pandemic.

2) On Jan. 8, Quebec posted a high of 3,127 #COVID19 cases. Ten days later, the province declared 1,634 infections. In fact, the number should be lower, 1,434 cases, since technically 200 belong to the tally reported on Sunday but were only disclosed Monday because of delays.

3) Is this a sign that the province’s curfew and shutting of non-essential businesses are working? A senior Montreal health official to whom I spoke attributed the decline in #COVID19 cases to a drop in testing. Authorities carried out 10,000 fewer tests over the weekend.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

18 Jan

1) Some observers are already suggesting Quebec may be turning a corner in the #pandemic by noting the province has reported three days of declining #COVID19 hospitalizations and a steady drop in active cases. In this thread, I will try to show why this view may be premature.

2) Quebec counted a total of 2,596 people with #COVID19 in the province’s private seniors’ residences and long-term care centres Sunday — one of the highest daily totals in the second wave. Unfortunately, some of these individuals will need to be hospitalized in the coming days.

3) What’s more, the number of active #COVID19 cases (20,636) should not be considered accurate because authorities acknowledged Sunday that a delay in the transmission of data resulted in a drop in the number of new cases declared. This should be corrected by Monday.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

15 Jan

1) More evidence is emerging that Quebec’s latest #pandemic restrictions may be failing to break the second wave of #COVID19 cases. In this thread, I will return to the subject of the growing number of workplace outbreaks and transmission of the virus in reopened schools.

2) Nearly three weeks after Quebec ordered the closing of non-essential businesses — but not manufacturing — the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace jumped by 55 in the past two days to 633. One would have expected such outbreaks to start declining by now.

3) Meanwhile, elementary schools reopened on Monday. Yet already, schools are shuttering classrooms due to #COVID19 exposure, up by 19 Thursday for a total of 33 across the province. What’s more, 134 more students and staff have tested positive for the #coronavirus. See below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

14 Jan

1) Despite the closing of non-essential businesses in Montreal on Dec. 25, workplace #COVID19 outbreaks rose to 109 from 91 in the past two weeks, according to the latest figures by authorities. In this thread, I will assess whether the current #pandemic restrictions are working.

2) At first glance, it might seem like the restrictions may be working, given the fact that the total number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal dropped to 315 Tuesday from 426 on Dec. 29. But the chart below is somewhat misleading, as it does not include any school clusters.

3) Quebec shut schools on Dec. 17 amid concerns of rising #COVID19 transmission across the province. On Dec. 29, the Montreal public health department reported 164 school outbreaks. But the latest update shows no such outbreaks, understandable given that schools were shut.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Jan

1) As #COVID19 hospitalizations surged by 61 to nearly 1,500 in the province Tuesday, more young Quebecers are being admitted for the #pandemic illness than ever, some of whom are children, according to the latest figures by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

2) The INSPQ reported on Tuesday that there were six “current hospitalizations” for #COVID19 among children up to the age of nine, and 11 between the ages of 10 and 19. I’ve never seen such stats before in Quebec’s pandemic. Please look at the pie chart below.

3) True, the majority of the 1,497 Quebecers hospitalized for #COVID19 are above the age of 60, with the 80-to-89 demographic comprising most admissions. However, as you can observe from INSPQ Excel chart below, a total of 68 Quebecers under 39 are currently in hospital.

Read 11 tweets

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