Thread by @youyanggu

Wed Feb 3 Weekly Vaccination Update:

It was a disappointing week. New vaccinations decreased compared to last week.

This is also the first week where fewer doses were distributed than administered.

covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-i…

1st doses remained under 1M/day while 2nd doses were up 60% compared to last week (236k -> 381k a day).

The clear pattern that is emerging is that states are allocating their limited doses to give out as 2nd doses rather than to vaccinate new people.

Given that the pace of "doses distributed" have also not increased since early January, the outlook is worrisome.

Unless the pace of new distributed doses increases, it currently looks like we may be at a plateau in new vaccinations for a while.

Here is a map of the current pace of daily vaccinations.

States like Florida and Texas that saw a quick initial rollout are now seeing their new vaccinations stagnate.

California, a frequently criticized state, has improved their rate significantly.

covid19-projections.com/maps-infection…

That said, we are still projecting a ramp-up in new vaccinations in late Feb/March, partially driven by the rollout of the new J&J single shot vaccine.

April is still a likely timeline for general public availability, though May is also possible, depending on the state.

We also made some improvements to our Path to Herd Immunity chart.

We estimate roughly 100M people (30%) in the US currently have immunity.

Out of the 100M with immunity, 7% come from vaccination only, 91% come from past infection only, and 2% have both.

We want to caution that we are currently not yet accounting for the virus variants that have been increasing in prevalence. We are actively monitoring the situation and are waiting for more data.

If the variants can escape immunity, then these results will no longer hold.