Since we'll get a lot of questions about this, a few points.
1) This is illustrative, meant to show you the pace of the rollout. Herd immunity is a VERY complicated concept with many more moving parts than we can include here.
2) We are not factoring in existing immunity from infection, in part because that's not a disqualifying factor for vaccination, and because many previously infected people will still get vaccines.
3) As new vaccines roll out, we'll update some of the data/assumptions behind that + add more to our FAQ/methods blog.
As expected, the number of people completing vaccination is starting to pick up quickly. It should trail the first-dose rate by about 3.5 weeks (assuming supply remains steady)
In the U.S., states have started taking unused doses from nursing homes and pulling them back into their state distribution systems -- this should tighten up some of the slack in the system. Per @angelicalavito
In our global rate chart, China makes infrequent reports. Those reports are very big. So it ends up looking...weird. This will likely clean up over time, but the data are the data.
Here's how the chart of daily vaccinations counted looks in the reporting period for the storm (data avail on our tracker bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…)
As @jillrshah reports, many East Coast states basically canceled vaccinations over the last two days as the weather hit. NJ, CT, NY all had vaccination cancelations.
Ditto Maryland, which canceled many appointments. Look at their daily rate chart:
The lower-than-usual 1M doses today is of an unknown cause. It's not the ❄️☃️🌨️, since we know doses reported typically lag the on-the-ground situation by a few days.
We will now show rolling 7-day averages for each state, as well as % of pop with first and second doses in our sortable tables. bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
So what's up with California, which is always at the bottom of the ranking for "% of doses used"?
🤦♂️Basically it sounds like *part* of the problem was that people around the state weren't hitting "submit" at the end of the day, @angelicalavito reports.