I don't put too much stock in ecological modelling studies, but I understand that some others do
A new study from the USA looks at which age groups appear to drive transmission trends
It has some interesting findings
doi.org/10.1126/scienc…
1/5
A new study from the USA looks at which age groups appear to drive transmission trends
It has some interesting findings
doi.org/10.1126/scienc…
1/5
They use age specific mortality data to eliminate bias from undertesting of cases, alongside mobility and contact data
They found adults age 20 - 49 are the origins of most infections
This did not change over time, nor with school reopenings
2/5
They found adults age 20 - 49 are the origins of most infections
This did not change over time, nor with school reopenings
2/5
Conclusion:
"This study provides evidence that the resurgent COVID-19 epidemics in the US in 2020 have been driven by adults aged 20-49, and in particular adults aged 35-49, before and after school reopening."
3/5
"This study provides evidence that the resurgent COVID-19 epidemics in the US in 2020 have been driven by adults aged 20-49, and in particular adults aged 35-49, before and after school reopening."
3/5
"Unlike pandemic flu, these adults accounted after school reopening in October, 2020 for an estimated 72.2% [68.6%-75.9%] of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US locations considered, whereas less than 5% originated from children aged 0-9 and less than 10% from teens aged 10-19."
4/5
4/5
There is a whole list of caveats, as is common to ecological modelling studies (complex questions, complex methods and complex data)
Never-the-less, the idea that these types of studies universally suggest schools are the drivers of transmission is not accurate
5/5
Never-the-less, the idea that these types of studies universally suggest schools are the drivers of transmission is not accurate
5/5
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