These numbers are roughly accurate, but do not reflect anything like a comparable scenario to spring
These children are MUCH less unwell, due to a combination of recognising less severe cases, early management, and perhaps a degree of over diagnosis to be on the safe side
2/4
Only a couple of patients per day are even unwell enough to be enrolled in the worlds only clinical trial for this condition, the RECOVERY trial
Very few cases of coronary artery aneurysms, which even after spring resolved for most children over follow up
3/4
That is why paediatricians are all over twitter/media trying to reassure people
We are frightened enough, and for good reason
Issues with children’s safety are particularly sensitive
I would urge people to treat it with the sensitivity and careful language it deserves
4/4
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They use age specific mortality data to eliminate bias from undertesting of cases, alongside mobility and contact data
They found adults age 20 - 49 are the origins of most infections
This did not change over time, nor with school reopenings
2/5
Conclusion:
"This study provides evidence that the resurgent COVID-19 epidemics in the US in 2020 have been driven by adults aged 20-49, and in particular adults aged 35-49, before and after school reopening."
3/5
I've seen suggestions that the idea younger children might be less susceptible to infection with #COVID19 is a "myth", based on children just not being tested enough
That is untrue!
Whilst it's true children are under tested, this is not where this idea came from!
1/8
It comes from household contact tracing studies
When someone in a home is identified as being infected, the other members of the house are tested to see if they are infected
It's a useful experiment as everyone at home gets very similar exposure
2/8
Some early studies did only test contacts with symptoms, but actually most large studies since then have tested ALL close contacts REGARDLESS of symptoms
The current issue of #schoolclosures is so complex I am loathed to add my opinion to the twitter soup
Massive uncertainties✅
High stakes✅
Huge health trade offs✅
Opposing opinions ✅
Easy answers 🚫
I'll just add a few simple thoughts
1/9
Firstly, don't be fooled by twitter
It has the most shouty and polarised opinions only, the moderates have been largely hounded out
Both public and scientific opinion is almost certainly much more nuanced and balanced than this platform would fool you into believing
2/9
Next, advocating for widespread closure is a legitimate opinion in the current environment
Massive, uncontrolled community transmission and looming hospital capacity issues, with high prevalence of infections among children (esp teens) are a bad mix
3/9
This data is difficult to interpret in a number of ways: 1. There is no denominator, either of institutions or populations 2. It counts the number of outbreaks, not cases 3. It doesn't tell you who had the infections
- 24,000 schools (9 million pupils) not inc. university
- 11,000 care homes (410,000 residents)
- 117 prisons (79,000 prisoners)
- 26,000 restaurants (many not/partially open)