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Peter Foster Profile picture
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5 Feb, 5 tweets, 6 min read
Its a @FinancialTimes #Brexit Briefing exclusive - @Port_of_Dover has shared their January traffic figures...you can see truck throughput (both directions, combined) is returning to "normal" levels. BUT...there's a 'but' 1/
@FinancialTimes @Port_of_Dover What this doesn't show you is how many are running empty from GB-EU (so EU hauliers can avoid getting caught in customs foul ups) and what that is doing for freight rates, which anecdotally are rising fast. /2
@FinancialTimes @Port_of_Dover Normally an estimated 30% go back empty from UK to EU (trade imbalances) but French authorities estimate it at about 50% and but @RHARodMcKenzie estimates it could be 65% based on members information. /3
@FinancialTimes @Port_of_Dover @RHARodMcKenzie How much of this is temporary, how much related to #COVID19, how much due to pre-Jan stockpiling is really hard to say - but clearly there is less trade going on. @IHSMarkit data found UK manufacturing "close to stalling" this week. /4

ft.com/content/2ed340…
@FinancialTimes @Port_of_Dover @RHARodMcKenzie @IHSMarkit Anyway, you fool, if you'd subscribed to @FinancialTimes #Brexit Briefing you'd have known all this 24 hours ago... :))) Go on, you know it makes sense.

ft.com/content/dbed25…

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More from @pmdfoster

Peter Foster Profile picture
6 Feb
🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🤔🤔🤔🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨NEW: post #brexit immigration rules are shaping up to kill the au pair industry - on which 45,000 working families depend for affordable childcare. Seems mad. Stay with me. /1

on.ft.com/2Mus5C3
First, what is an 'au pair' - sometimes assumed to be childcare for posh folk - but actually its really a childcare solution for doctors, police, nurses, single parents who have jobs that need reliable, affordable, full-time childcare. The can't afford nannies at £2k/pcm /2
So they an 'au pair', which is a kind of cultural exchange. A young person (90%+ from EU/EEA) aged 18-26 comes to live in your house, they get contribution to English lessons, board and lodging and £100/week 'pocket money' in exchange for 25 hours childcare - it works /3
Read 21 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
5 Feb
So. This week's exam question: "Can the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol survive?"

There's an easy answer and a harder one - a short thread after a big week for NI & #Brexit and a potentially bigger one to come. /1

ft.com/content/c8621c…
The easy answer is that the Protocol has to survive - not least because there isn't any obvious alternative to it, and ultimately no appetite to find one in Brussels, London or Dublin. That doesn't mean it going to be easy now... /2
The Protocol - lest we forget, which the EU seemed to last Friday - is there to prevent a return to a hard border on the Island of Ireland, and if the first month of operation of the Irish Sea border shows, that border needs to be between GB & NI. /3
Read 20 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
5 Feb
It's OUT!! My weekly #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - first a look at the balance of creativity and certainty needed from UK's new state aid regime, with expert help from @GeorgePeretzQC @AlexanderPHRose @jamesrwebber - thorny but fascinating. /1

ft.com/content/dbed25…
@FinancialTimes @GeorgePeretzQC @AlexanderPHRose @jamesrwebber The exam question is set by @GeorgePeretzQC who sets out the spectrum of choice between EU's slow, formalistic State Aid regime - which requires pre-notification and has long infuriated UK ministers - and the "open sea" approach where only courts act as a check on subsidy /2
@FinancialTimes @GeorgePeretzQC @AlexanderPHRose @jamesrwebber Post #Brexit, as @jamesrwebber points out, we really don't need EU-style regime which was designed to create level playing field among 27 countries all with control over their own tax/economic policies...we can have a nimbler system better suited to the UK. But what system? /3
Read 13 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
3 Feb
Holding statement from @michaelgove after meeting with @MarosSefcovic - but quite different moods in London and Brussels on this. U.K. really feels need to push to make NI Protocol changes, per Gove letter. EU sees slippery slope if it moves too far.../1

gov.uk/government/new…
NI trade groups really backing need for substantial moves - and U.K. view that the Article 16 debacle really has destabilised process in Northern Ireland...EU is still sticking to script on Protocol being consequence of @BorisJohnson decisions. /2
So from EU perspective for example the six month “grace period” on say sausages coming from GB is NOT to find time for a “fix” but time for NI to sort out supply chains that reflect reality of U.K. decision to put border in Irish Sea/3
Read 5 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
2 Feb
Retail groups backing @michaelgove calls for extension of grace periods for phasing in full export health controls... @MichaelAodhan of @the_brc says controls need to be "pragmatic" and over a "workable timeframe". /1
@michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @the_brc Full story hear via @FinancialTimes but interesting to note @michaelgove
change of tone now..."teething problems" line is dropped in favour of demands for material fixes to the Protocol. /2

ft.com/content/89cc20…
@michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @the_brc @FinancialTimes “In the short term there are a number of issues which I would not describe as teething problems — they are significant issues which bear on the lives of people in Northern Ireland, which do need to be resolved,” Mr Gove said. /3
Read 10 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
1 Feb
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺💄👠👗💅🏻🕺💃🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨
UK’s £35bn fashion industry warns of “decimation” from #brexit - big names sign open letter to @BorisJohnson urging action. Many of 50,000 SMEs on the rack due to VAT, customs and work permit issues. Stay with me/1
on.ft.com/36tqUcE
@BorisJohnson You can read the full text of the letter here, co-ordinated by Fashion Round Table @FashionRoundTab, but tl;dr it says that #Brexit has left a "gaping hole" in an industry that relies of free movement of professionals. It's a familiar cry /2

fashionroundtable.co.uk/news/brexit-fa…
@BorisJohnson @FashionRoundTab The industry, already whacked by #COVID19, is now discovering that cross-border sales are a horror (VAT, Customs, long delays) and models, stylists, photographers that used to blat around Europe can't any more. They need permits, for themselves, for their gear /3
Read 18 tweets

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