Jobs Day: January 2021
Oof, -159K in normal 2-month revisions (separate from the annual benchmarking adjustments which also got folded in the data).
With January's +49K read, the US is still 9.9 million jobs short of where we were in February, and 12.1 million jobs short of where we probably would have been absent COVID.

That means overall employment is still down -6.5% from February. In leisure/hospitality, it's -23%.
It also means that, even with the jobs gains since April, the % jobs hole since February is still slightly worse than the *worst* peak-to-trough jobs hole during the Great Recession.
Prime-age (25-54) labor force participation up +0.4pp for men, flat for women (don't read too much into single-month changes in the household survey).
The participation rate has basically been flat since June. The employment rate has been largely flat since October (small changes in both can still translate to declines in the unemployment rate).
If one adjusts the official unemployment rate for potential misclassification of workers and the decline in labor force participation since February, an adjustment Fed Governor Brainard has mentioned, the adjusted unemployment rate in January was 9.8%, down -0.3pp from December.

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More from @ernietedeschi

8 Jan
Ugh.
Jobs Day, December 2020
Interestingly, with the +135,000 revisions to Oct and Nov, employment was "only" down -5,000 from what we thought before.
Read 10 tweets
25 Dec 20
Canada and the US were the two most generous advanced countries when it came to direct aid (Germany's fiscal response looks bigger on paper, but the vast majority of it was just in the form of loan guarantees or other non-direct aid). /1
Canada gave the equivalent of USD $1,560 per month to its jobless workers through the CERB program, *in lieu of* their version of UI (which they call EI). This went until October. Since in theory you weren't supposed to get both EI & CERB, CERB shouldn't have counted as EI weeks.
The US by contrast gave USD $2,600 per month to all UI recipients, *on top of* their UI benefits, through July 31. That includes gig economy PUA beneficiaries who got around $200 per week base benefits in their program; Canada's CERB was meant to address gig workers too.
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec 20
Here's a pre-buttal on some takes we're sure to see on this new stimulus package:

1. Stimulus checks are only around 1/5 of the total bill.
2. UI in America typically pays around 50% of pre-layoff wages, though it varies. With this extra $300/week, that will be ~85%.

1/X
3. If you're unemployed, you get an extra $1,300 per month through mid-March. If you're a gig worker or been out of work since early 2020, that's on top of having your UI benefits extended.

2/X
4. The bill includes another ~$300 billion in PPP loans, which are essentially payroll support for small businesses. If a business wants them *fully* forgiven, they essentially have to maintain their employment and wages -- effectively the equivalent 100% payroll support.

3/X
Read 7 tweets
4 Dec 20
Jobs Day, November 2020
The good news is: payrolls grew. The bad news is: payrolls only grew +245K when we still have a ~10 mil jobs gap. At that pace it would take until the end of 2024 just to get back to where employment was in February.

We all hope & expect jobs will reaccelerate, but this is weak
And the gaps remain large. Leisure & hospitality employment remains more than 20% smaller than it was pre-COVID, even after recovering many of the initial jobs lost.

The overall gap is only now reaching its *greatest extent* during the Great Recession.
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec 20
As a reminder, my base models, which use Homebase, Kronos/UKG, & UI claims data, are pointing to a -515K to -228K seasonally-adjusted decline in nonfarm payrolls for November tomorrow (-198K to +93K non-seasonally-adjusted).

One more attempt at kicking the tires... /1
Homebase, in a report published this week, showed how their index performed last year. As you can see, there were declines between October and November last year as well.

In fact last year's Oct-Nov decline was -4%; this year it's -3%, a bit *better*. /2 joinhomebase.com/wp-content/upl…
Now let's pause here and notice too that there have been *several* months now where Homebase data outperformed in 2020 month-to-month versus 2019. And yet the base models have performed well. /3
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec 20
Ahead of the ADP release at 8:15am, a brief thread on what high-frequency private data is suggesting we'll get for November payrolls, why it might be right, and why it might be wrong. /1
Note that I've augmented my high-frequency payrolls model to more explicitly address autocorrelation. /2
Data from Homebase, Kronos/UKG, and UI claims is consistent with November payroll employment growing at -515K to -228K seasonally-adjusted (-198K to +93K non-seasonally-adjusted). /3
Read 11 tweets

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