.@Farah_Pandith, who wrote a book about radicalization, has something to say about the podcast Caliphate today. This isn't just about fact-checking. Every female counterterrorism expert saw what was happening: the selling of a sexy (pun intended) story to the public. 1/
From the PR campaign, to the haunting fear that the reporter has about being physically in danger, to the glamorization of violence, and the caricature of female ISIS members, the whole thing was, in Farah's words, made "glam." 2/
And it worked. Caliphate was to counterterrorism as Serial was to criminal justice issues by bringing a major issue to the forefront through audio storytelling of the life of one man through a believing woman. I am well aware of the irony is this analogy. 3/
Taught to the military, intelligence officials and in university classes, Caliphate was huge. It was too good to be true: the dashing reporter, the lost ISIS member, the hunt for the truth. And it was in fact not true. So, this isn't just a media story; it impacted much more. 4/
The story of Caliphate isn't only about how the "facts" were unearthed, but also how the story was told. That isn't on a single reporter or producer. We all loved the story. It was glam. 5/5
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Political commentators are falling into mistake that violent terror threats get less so if some mercy (no impeachment) is shown its leader. There is history of counterterrorism efforts that show otherwise. Only complete isolation, powerlessness, deplatforming, of leader works. 1/
For the next 10 days and beyond, Trump has to be seen as ineffectual, without oxygen, so he can not have second act. No soft exit. It’s horrible to admit, but do not buy into argument that violence is less if we put a brake on gas pedal. They need to be stopped. 2/
But the violence is actually worse if they, and future recruits, view him as strong. They want to back a winner. We prepare for violence but it will be less so in the future with no leadership and if they know their leader can’t help them. 3/
CAUTIOUSLY HAPPY THREAD: vaccine distribution. I promised I would return to this prediction.
After first full non-holiday week, US is getting closer to 1 million doses a day (865K Fri, up from @700K Th) and we may be hitting inflection point. 1/
Quick thoughts: we are unlikely to have a supply problem by Feb with Biden announcement (he is not changing FDA standards, only distribution timing of first vaccine because of reliance on supply chain per @ScottGottliebMD good idea) and other vaccines (johnson and johnson). 2/
We need leeway on allocation decisions; move stuff faster. Don't give up on allocations, but some flexibility. States are starting to do this. Go to groupings first, if things get tied up, move quickly to next allocation. These are things that are learned by implemention. 3/
On vaccination distribution, time is of the essence but I can’t urge enough that data after one non holiday week will be very telling about what actually needs to be fixed. We don’t want to screw up the science with wrong fix.
Jan 4-11th.
Then: Jan 20, competency.
See ⬇️ 1/
Some wild proposals being mentioned because this is a “disaster” there are “no plans” etc. and if you’ve been through this before you know systems take time and resources. I’m not defending anyone. Trump lied about 20 M. Eyes on prize. Sweeping assessments lead to bad “fixes.” 2/
So I urge patience before we tinker with science or medicine or allocation decisions. From my perch, money and personnel and maybe some distribution of locales (everyone thinks big vaccination sites, but small and more also works) This is great analogy from @ZoeMcLaren 3/3
I appreciate the sentiment this reflects. I (of all people) also appreciate that we draw conclusions about Arabs and Muslims as well. So, I want to start there. But there is a reason in this very unique case why (some of us) use words like suicide bomber but not terrorist. 1/
I'm not here to defend analysis, I'm thick skinned, simply to explain thinking. As we all know, terrorism is a motivational crime, violence for political or ideological impact. A lot of things can elicit terror, seem "terrorist" like, but not be that 2/
WHEN?!?! A THREAD. The timeframe for vaccinations has varied. Fauci noted general population "most likely start" in April. Anything sooner you hear from folks is based on assumptions that are risky. End of Aug for majority is also a really fair timeframe. 1/
Let's start with the numbers. Indignation at pandemic skeptics who are getting the vaccine now is totally legitimate. But as I've been urging, success is in bulk measurements: over 550K have been vaccinated so far in US. And it's rolling. 2/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This pace will pick up significantly. Challenges in distribution system are getting addressed daily (disclosure, again: I advise public and private entities on this part, but do not work directly with any manufacturers). This isn't exactly a chain of command venture but more 3/
Thread on Stochastic Terrorism: For years, the President of the United States Donald Trump has utilized his pulpit, twitter and his WH team to perfect a technique known as #stochasticterrorism, inciting random but predictable violence by supporters. His goal was this⬇️
His goal was to promote violence for political gain. That's terrorism. The first time I used the words publicly was in Oct, 2018 after the serial bomber arrest, but Trump was already a pro.
This: