Thread by @juliettekayyem

WHEN?!?! A THREAD. The timeframe for vaccinations has varied. Fauci noted general population "most likely start" in April. Anything sooner you hear from folks is based on assumptions that are risky. End of Aug for majority is also a really fair timeframe.
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https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/1341212651892977664

Let's start with the numbers. Indignation at pandemic skeptics who are getting the vaccine now is totally legitimate. But as I've been urging, success is in bulk measurements: over 550K have been vaccinated so far in US. And it's rolling. 2/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

This pace will pick up significantly. Challenges in distribution system are getting addressed daily (disclosure, again: I advise public and private entities on this part, but do not work directly with any manufacturers). This isn't exactly a chain of command venture but more 3/

a massive public/private venture (fed/state/local in health/safety/transportation, manufacturers, distributors, suppliers, etc) working through logistics that hopefully has capacity for a rolling recovery (rolls across US, over time, gaining speed as supply increases) 4/

Can it surge without breaking? There will be challenges, have been, but nothing that isn't fixable yet. The Biden WH will inherit huge issues and they are communicating, rightfully, realistic timing: money, supply chain (that Trump neglected) sufficiency, allocation decisions. 5/

Demand will almost always outpace supply, but I'm hopeful for more vaccines getting approved in Q1. The machine needs money, more capacity as well, it will falter and course correct. Folks in our fields have higher tolerance for mistakes (not forgiving them, just noting). 6/

What do you look for to see if the system can hold for 8 or more months? Not enough money to support last mile efforts; supply dries up for too long, impacting campaign and confidence; stockpile depleted (note distributions were corrected so supplies travel with vaccine now). 7/

And there are real issues about general population distribution process -- alphabetical? first come/served? etc -- that need to be worked out and will be. Nothing is certain; all decisions have their flaws. Something that seems simple -- do it by age! -- isn't always right. 8/

So through summer. When I interviewed Fauci in August, his words were "around through 2021." As more people get vaccinated, normalcy will seem closer. And remember recovery rolls as weather gets warmer, so there will be benefits from that as well.

https://twitter.com/juliettekayyem/status/1293911050987819015

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There are many scientific questions about what vaccines can and cannot do, potential mutations, about whether vaccines will impact treatment or also spread. I know the vaccine isn't the cure all, but it is a precondition so this part focuses on fast and fair distribution. 10/

The pieces -- manufacture, equitable demand, allocation, distribution, verification -- are complex, and the magnitude is something else. Best case but very realistic scenario is late summer. A bad, few months now leading to something better(ish). Pace. But still be hopeful. 11/11