Friday evening in a pandemic: Time for a philosphical story.
Once a king and his army get lost in a desert. Everyone is tired and thirsty and they find a muddy pond in the desert. Some want to drink water desperately, others are concerned about contaminations in the water
🧵1/
The King has to make a decision to either
- Allow everyone to drink the water so that no one dies out of thirst. But some may die if the water is contaminated
- Ask the army to carry on their search for clear water. But some may die out of thirst.
What would you choose?
🧵2/
No option is easy and people will die in both the options, right?
Wrong!!!
I don't know the psychological term for this but this is an artificial constraint you have put on your thought process because I asked you to choose from the two options.
🧵3/
Tell me honestly did you even consider that they can use some clothes to filter the water? Or any other 3rd option?
This is exactly the situation right now of #COVID19 pandemic.
Our leaders assumed that we have only 2 options:
1. Herd immunity
2. Strict lockdowns
🧵4/
Not many are talking about
-Multi level contact tracing
-Faster trace-test-isolation
- Increasing the test capacity
Germany has brought down daily cases from 30,000(Dec) to 10,000(Feb) in almost 2 months lockdown and now they are using only 50% of their test capacity! Why?
🧵5/
I purposedly didn't mention vaccines above, because they are analogous to reinforcement from a 2nd battalion who might take some time(6 months to maybe an year) to find our lost army. And they might get countered by enemies(mutations that escape vaccines)
🧵6/
Similarly about opening or closing the schools.
What about:
- Taking measures to make them safe like masks and ventilations
- parallel online classes if needed
- quarantine for whole family when a classmate is positive
- tracking devices for kids
- closing when Incidence >10
🧵7/

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More from @vineetbhola90

7 Feb
#Gütersloh , Tönnies, Juni 2020 !!!
Erinnert ihr euch dass, damals viele Leute zweite Welle vorgestellt haben.
Wie hat #Deutschland das verhindert?
#COVID19 ist eine Infektion, der verbreitet sich ein paar Tagen bevor man Symptome zeigt, oder?
Hier ist meine Analyse :
🧵1/12 Image
Einleitung :
Innerhalb kurze Zeit waren mehr als 1500 Mitarbeiter wegen klimatisierte Schweinezerlegungsräume im Schlachtbetrieb Tönnies in Rheda-Wiedenbrück mit dem Coronavirus infiziert.
Räume für Tiere zerlegen waren sechs bis zehn Grad gekühlt.
🧵2/12
tagesschau.de/inland/corona-…
Reaktion?
-Kontaktbeschränkungen wie im März 2020
- Rund 7000 Tönnies-Mitarbeiter mit ihren Familien unter Quarantäne
-seit dem 17. Juni die Schulen und Kitas im Kreis Gütersloh wieder geschlossen
- Kostenlose Coronavirus Test für alle Bürger
🧵3/12
tagesschau.de/inland/gueters…
Read 14 tweets
19 Jan
Many research papers as well as #RKI, Germany assert average start of symptoms for #COVID19 around 5th-6th day of infection and peak of infectiousness between 2 days before to 1 day after onset of symptoms.. 🧵1/. #2ndlevel #contacttracing #coronavirus
As thumbrule it takes 10-12 days for #lockdown to impact the spread of #COVID19, so duration between infection till confirmation is on avg. 10 days. This is reasonable as people would wait 1-2 days with symptoms, book a test appointment and get the results so 6+2+1+1=10 days 🧵2/
So if Person A gets infected with #COVID19 today, he will be reported as a confirmed case after 10 days. But he might have infected person B after 4 days. Person B might have infected person C after 4+4 = 8 days from today, or 2 days before person A is reported. 🧵3/
Read 17 tweets
17 Jan
Warum vermuten @rki_de und #gesundheitsaemter im zweite Grades der Kontaktpersonen keine Risiko? Wenn sie selbst Generationszeit für #COVID19 als 4 Tage berechnen und Dauer der Bestätigung der Infektion kann locker 10 Tagen sein(6. T Symptome + 3T bis Test + 1T bis Ergebnisse)🧵 ImageImageImage
Wie #COVID19 schneller als nur direkte #Kontaktverfolgung verbreitet. Wenn es heute 20,000 neue infizierte mit R = 1,1 gibt, werden nach 4 Tagen die neue infizierten 22,000 und nach 8 Tagen = 24,200. 10 Tage nach der Infektionen werden die erste 20,000 infizierte bestätigt aber🧵
Bis 10. Tage gibt es schon 2 Zyklen der Infektion(4+4=8) von #COVID aber #gesundheitsaemter und @rki_de emfehlt nur direkte Kontaktpersonen also nur 22,000 infizierte zu verfolgen. Aber es gibt 24,200 zusätz. 2. grades Kontakten als infizierten, die noch keine Symptome haben🧵
Read 7 tweets

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