I am today launching a small twitter initiative, the Campaign Against Nonsense about Italy (#CANI). I’ll be tweeting data and arguments for countering myths about Italy’s state and economy. In this thread, I’ll explain why I think this is necessary /1
The way journalists, politicians and economists write and talk about Italy and Southern Europe is often distorted – especially in the “frugal” public sphere. Italy is not the basket case of the popular narrative. The way we speak about stuff matters a lot for policy debates. /2
This was apparent in earlier stages of the COVID crisis, when “frugal” leaders used distorted pictures of Southern Europe to size down the grants in the EU recovery fund. If only Italy were willing to reform along "frugal" lines, things would be splendid! /3
When “frugals” act as “head teacher” of Italy, it contributes to political tensions. Trust between Northern and Southern European politicians already deteriorated during the Euro Crisis. We need to improve relationships and build consensus for macro policies to recover. /4
There are debates around forming a new government (Draghi as prime minister?) and spending the money from Next Generation EU. In this context, I regularly read comments that are just not looking at the macro policy picture in a differentiated way. /5
Italy surely has structural problems of its own, which should be tackled (e.g. banking sector, North/South polarisation, dysfunctional political elements) – what country doesn’t? But if other €Z partners don’t stop treating Italy as a basket case, they’ll also lose big. /6
I am from Austria, a country whose government is proud of belonging to the “frugal” camp. The policy discourse on Italy and European economic policy is very one-sided here, often in contradiction to the facts. I feel responsible for contributing at least a bit to improving it. /7
Italy is a large country (size of economy and population) and systematically important. If Italy were to leave the €zone, it would have ripple effects on financial markets and negative consequences for all. Is that really what we want? /8
Quite often, my experience is that basic facts about Italy and other Southern European countries are simply unknown. Although I am not naïve – I know that a small twitter campaign won’t change the world – I think it’s worthwhile to reach out to open-minded, reasonable people. /9
I’ll be tweeting about reforms from the market-liberal playbook in Italy, why Italians have not been living beyond their means, why the Italian state is the world champion of fiscal consolidation before Corona - and why that’s not necessarily a good thing. Hope you read on. #CANI
Thanks for all your amazingly positive responses. It shows that there are many of us out there who think that the dominant narrative on Italy and Southern Europe is distorted, and we should work to reduce these distortions, so that we can achieve better policy outcomes in Europe.
Please note that I am moving the twitter handle to: Campaign Against Italy Nonsense #CAIN

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More from @heimbergecon

7 Feb
Campaign Against Italy Nonsense #CAIN

This thread presents data that strongly reject claims that 🇮🇹's problem has been a lack of fiscal discipline.

Italy is the pre-Corona world champion of fiscal consolidation - with problems for investment, growth and debt sustainability /1 Image
Many claim that Italy just didn't do enough fiscal consolidation to fix its public finances. In fact, fiscal consolidation in Italy was far more sizeable than in any other advanced country (from early 1990s up to financial crisis) - according to IMF data. /2 Image
Due to Covid, Italy’s public debt has jumped to ~160% of GDP. It’s important to understand why Italy's public debt was high already before Corona: primarily because of the legacy of the 1980s and 1990s, when interest rates on government bonds skyrocketed. /3 Image
Read 9 tweets
18 Jan
My meta-analysis on corporate tax competition is out in European Journal of Political Economy. The results point to tax competition as a major factor in explaining reductions in corporate tax rates. Data and specification choices affect results: Thread /1

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Statutory corporate income tax rates have declined substantially in EU countries over the past decades. However, it's not straightforward to what extent these observed declines in corporate tax rates are explained by tax competition; it could also be due to other factors. /2
The literature doesn't provide general conclusions on magnitude of corporate tax competition: while several papers report clear empirical support for corporate tax competition, other papers either find no clear support or at least present mixed evidence. Meta-analysis can help /3
Read 8 tweets
10 Jan
It’s totally wrong to draw the lesson from history that you have to push for “drastic anti-inflation“ policy to counteract a rise of the Nazis. Nazi rise in Germany in early 1930s happened when there was DEFLATION, worsened by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

In 1928, the Nazis had 2.6% of the votes in Germany; in 1932, they had 37.4%. Most people – across the political spectrum – don’t know that Nazi rise happened in an environment of mass unemployment and DEFLATION. /2

hertie-school.org/fileadmin/user…
Hyperinflation in Germany stopped in 1923 after the currency reform. And the real problem as the Nazis gained strength was the severe recession with deflationary pressures. Brüning’s emergency decrees introduced tax hikes and spending cuts, with devastating economic effects. /3
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
Austria has a plagiarism scandal of a new dimension. The PhD thesis of Labour Minister Christine Aschbacher (from the conservative party of Chancellor Kurz) opens unbelievable "abysses of gibberish, nonsense and plagiarism".

plagiatsgutachten.com/blog/dissertat…
Labour Minister Aschbacher's Master's thesis was also riddled with plagiarism. And she defended her PhD thesis in the middle of the pandemic, when she should have focused all her efforts on coming up with the best possible policy response to the crisis.

derstandard.at/story/20001231…
Austrian Labour Minister Christina Aschbacher just resigned due to accusations of plagiarism. But she is now portraying herself as the victim of a campaign. Given the evidence shown by plagiarism hunter Stefan Weber, her defence is not very convincing:

derstandard.at/story/20001231…
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
EU-Wiederaufbaufonds wird dazu beitragen, dass EU-Länder nach Corona nicht weiter auseinanderdriften. €750 Milliarden durch EU-Anleihen; damit wird EU zu wichtigem Akteur auf den Anleihemärkten; ein Zukunftsmodell! Meine Kolumne @handelsblatt: Thread/1

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn… Image
In den letzten Monaten von 2020 begab die EU ihre ersten COVID-bezogenen Anleihen für das SURE-Programm (Unterstützung von Kurzarbeitsprogrammen in Mitgliedstaaten) - bei negativer Verzinsung und enormer Nachfrage nach den EU-Anleihen. /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
Das war erst der Auftakt: Zur Finanzierung wird EU-Kommission im Namen der EU bis zu €750 Milliarden auf den Finanzmärkten aufnehmen; €390 Milliarden Zuschüsse für Mitgliedstaaten, die nicht zurückgezahlt werden müssen; €360 Milliarden über Kredite. /3

ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/… Image
Read 9 tweets
23 Dec 20
HW Sinn hat es wieder getan: In seiner "Weihnachtsvorlesung" warnt er vor Hyperinflation. Er zieht direkte Linie von Hyperinflation 1923 zu Aufstieg der Nazis, erwähnt nicht, dass Nazi-Aufstieg Deflation vorausging, verstärkt durch Sparpolitik. Thread /1

Sinn hat das gleiche schon in einem langen NZZ-Interview gemacht. Ich habe das in einem Kommentar kritisiert, zumal HWS nicht nur die Geschichte verzerrt darstellt, sondern daraus auch noch verfehlte wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen ableitet. /2

In seiner Replik hatte Sinn behauptet, er sehe die Rolle der Brüning'schen Sparpolitik ähnlich wie ich, aber könne in einem Interview eben nicht alles erwähnen. In 73 Minuten "Weihnachtsvorlesung" hat er Deflation und Sparpolitik wieder nicht erwähnt. /3

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn…
Read 9 tweets

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