Share this page!

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Twitter logo
9 Feb, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Still #irresponsbilylong but feeling rather responsible now!

Pro tip - scrunch the Y-axis for perspective 1/
And use regression channel for perspective...
And seasonality for conviction...
And @100trillionUSD for framework...
And Metcalfe's Law for understanding...
And previous cycles' history for inspiration...
And accumulate and HODL for execution...

Good luck.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
8 Jan
There is a phenomena that I have observed over the last 30 years in markets...

The New Year Head Fake. 1/2
Hedge funds and asset managers start the year with zero P&L and new risk buckets to allocate.

After a 2-week break they want to get some trades on their shiny new books.

Wall St tends to publish a bunch of consensus Year Ahead trades. So, people pile in...
Then, once everyone is in, the trend often reverses or has a massive correction, taking everyone back to flat or negative on the year and they begin the P&L grind again...

I write about this almost every year in GMI to warn people not to pile into new risks in Jan and wait
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jan
Ok, looks like I need to explain this tweet...
Its just a thought but...

Let's say there is a $100bn of institutional money ready to come into BTC in the next 6 months and $XX bn retail.

Crypto is impossible to buy for some and hard(ish) for others.
Then imagine an equity is launched that is worth $60bn on the grey market. If you are a fund manager, then why not just own Coinbase to get exposure? Easy.

No, it ain't bitcoin, but it will move sort of like it and you don't have to beg your investment committee or trustees.
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jan
Crypto Bomb:

Ok, I'm leaking some GMI early... (not published yet - tomorrow a.m.)

I will eventually publish in Real Vision too (this article only). I push back strongly the Pfeffer view and the "shitcoin" view.

It's all Metcalfe's Law, baby... and ETH = BTC, like it or not.
You are your behavior....
Network value...(Metcalfe's Law)
Read 14 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Jan
While everyone seems to celebrate every single new BTC high, let me remind you of where we are going...

Nothing is a Law of Nature but the log-regression trend since inception makes sense to me contextually.

I think the risk is people UNDERSHOOT in their price targets. 1/
The Halving runs tend to get between 1 and 2 standard deviations overbought versus trend, and it occurs usually around 18 months.

This would give a rough price target between $400k and $1.2m by end of 2021 (not an exact science, but context).
It also ALWAYS climbs a wall of fear - in 2017 it was forks (they threw me off the trend back then). This time it feels like regulation and Tether/stable coins will create the wall of fear that the market climbs, throwing weak hands off.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
31 Dec 20
Happy New Year!

I just wanted to say thank you for a hell of a year here on Twitter.

We've all hung out together, debated, bounced off new ideas, bickered, trolled, celebrated each others victories and encouraged each other and tried to add value to the community.
We've even had fun nights on Friday night booze Twitter (Asia/Oz/NZ Saturday hangover Twitter). We've both kept each other sane over 2020 and driven each other mad, like a family. We've also enjoyed making fun of each other too and not taking ourselves too seriously.
I've tried really hard to add value where I could because that is what creates a vibrant community, where everyone tries to add value in their own way.

I've nailed some really big macro themes and got the dollar totally wrong too, but overall its been a banner year.
Read 16 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
30 Dec 20
We are at the stage where people I really respect - mean reversionists, value players and rationalists are urging caution in bitcoin.
However, I think reflexivity here is stronger than they can ever possibly imagine. There will be sharp sell offs on negative new and also on no news but people will hope for even better entry on sharp dips and miss it. 1/
And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity.

This is the most reflexive set up I’ve ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay.

I won’t be easy to hold on.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @RaoulGMI has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @RaoulGMI!

Read all threads by @RaoulGMI