Fascinating from Philip McCann: a lifetime of study, and he found that 570 pages barely covered the complexity of the UK Regional Economic challenges.

Surprising, because quite a few people think it's pretty simple
Also very striking: we have a governance system that automatically disincentivizes learning. A consequence of centralisation
"It's a core-periphery problem, not a cities-towns-rural problem. In the core, the cities, towns and rural areas are all doing well - in the periphery, none of them".

McCann identifies a clear flaw in how we are misdiagnosing the problem
Henry Kelly of Midlands Connect supplements this point by saying the object of regional policy isn't to create a second London. Better links to the core are a key variable
Next @Alison_McGovern says we should see the answer not in terms of London giving more, in a charitable way, to the rest of the UK, but other regions like her native Merseyside being faster-growing, emerging economies
McCann again: "The answer isn't simply devolve everything immediately. It is about the transition. There has been a lot of failure (internationally); the only two countries to do this successfully are France and Japan, and they took 25 years"

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Giles Wilkes

Giles Wilkes Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Gilesyb

8 Jan
Determined to be even-handed, I have forced myself to read this to see how much can be easily refutable. Tl;dr - most of it, easily
1/
First, this bit about things being no worse than a normal winter. Clearly wrong, as shown by @jburnmurdoch in this tweet stream

But also, there are cancelled urgent operations in the NHS. Does he think they do this for fun? 2/
Second, this bit that argues "well the lockdown won't make any difference". Again bizarre, because a. it makes an argument for a tougher lockdown, and b. clearly it does make a difference. Before, the schools were going to open. Now they are not. Contacts are reduced 3/
Read 8 tweets
18 Dec 20
I spent six years in Government building the case for an Industrial Strategy, first with Vince Cable and then with Theresa May.

This report is my attempt to explain the thinking that needs to go into it 1/ instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
First, you need to pick your moment - but the moment can last years. Peter Mandelson and @vincecable each recognised that post Financial Crisis was the time to build the case for intervention that changes the way the economy works. Now is another such time 2/
Let's face it: Johnson has always sounded like someone who ought to like Industrial Strategy, even if his "boosterish can-do-ism" largely focuses on concerns that other politicians going back to @Ed_Miliband have expressed 3/
Read 18 tweets
15 Dec 20
OK, I have tried to model this more, and the bottom line is: without a test and trace system that absolutely jumps on rising cases when the number of cases is really low, the government has a really hard task. Brace for some ugly graphs: 1/
This models a Spring surge, harsh measures in April-May that crush the virus infection down, and leads to loosening in June and July.

Basically, the R rate rises fast when lockdowns end in June - but you can hardly see it .... Table shows measures (low = restrictive) 2/ ImageImage
and so further lockdowns etc are *politically impossible* at the point they may stop it rising. Imagine - 3 months of almost no cases, not many deaths - but the exponential force is building, and then BANG 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
15 Dec 20
OK, so the @FT is in favour of new nuclear, but not at any price. How to judge this?

Here is my go ft.com/content/b528ba…

First, assume that each year we don't have a nuke, we burn gas instead, which produces carbon. How much? Here comes the maths:1/
A 3.2GW plant running for 8000 hours a year generates 25,600,000,000 kwh of electricity. And a kwh generated with gas produces .117kg of CO2.

So a year early = 3mTCO2 saved.

That is .85% of our current emissions...

or more like 1.5 % of our 2030 emissions. 2/ Image
How much is that worth? Well this doc assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… prices carbon in 2030 at £80. That would make those emissions worth £239m in 2018 £s

3/
Read 6 tweets
15 Dec 20
Here @GeorgeDibb and colleagues have dived a little deeper into a topic I touched on in April: equity bailouts for the covid-wrecked: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
But - as with my piece, you may say - the devilish details are still to be all filled in 1/
No self-respecting HMT official will hear of a broad plan to do this without muttering the word "Lemons", and asking "um, at what price?"

If there is a £1m loan outstanding to the bakery, how much equity does that get you? All of it? Half of it? 2/
... because if the bakery is a good commercial prospect, a private investor will get it. If not, the state picks it up. Result: the state gets a portfolio of rubbish companies

And note how many different kinds of magic IPPR want the equity to perform: 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
3 Dec 20
Fusion, the spillovers: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

A good example of the kind of document even a sceptical govt policymaker might be won over by 1/
The spinouts alone are fascinating 2/
Fusion in short is a neat manifestation of the sort of industrial strategy it is easier to believe in: not a nailed-on certainty*, but lots of spillover benefits, and they show their workings. 3/

*@PinsonRing is the account to follow for some smart scepticism
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!