And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.
Here's the change in North Carolina from the 2008 to 2020 presidential races. Both Obama and Trump narrowly carried the state. But basically every suburban precinct -- even in the smaller cities out east -- got more Democratic, while the rest of the state moved red.
The swing to Biden in precincts that were relatively "suburban" out east really stood out to me. Wilson, Rocky Mount, Kinston, Goldsboro, etc. Even a few around Lumberton(!).
Nash County (where Roy Cooper is from) has one of the more unique paths: it was McCain -> Obama -> Trump -> Biden. For Senate it was also Tillis '14 -> Cunningham '20.
The blue there is west of the city of Rocky Mount.
Ironic that Dems are usually criticized as a 'coastal' party, but I think Georgia's relative *lack* of a coastline helps Dems -- it attracts fewer R retirees. The gains NC Dems made in New Hanover County (Wilmington) have easily been erased by R growth in Pender & Brunswick.
and this is even before you throw in Carteret and Craven.
It was close, but Brunswick County wouldn't even vote for Mike McIntyre in 2012 -- that's when it was gone for basically *any* Dem.