Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image
As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.
This Facebook post was also the same month I joined Twitter so go figure.
This was still almost 2 years before I met Sen. Hagan, too. I was still very nerdy back then.

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More from @JMilesColeman

11 Feb
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege Image
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
PAIN
blue - obama -> biden
red - mccain-> trump
pink - obama -> trump
though a lot of light blue McCain -> Biden in Charlotte
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Here's the change in North Carolina from the 2008 to 2020 presidential races. Both Obama and Trump narrowly carried the state. But basically every suburban precinct -- even in the smaller cities out east -- got more Democratic, while the rest of the state moved red.
The swing to Biden in precincts that were relatively "suburban" out east really stood out to me. Wilson, Rocky Mount, Kinston, Goldsboro, etc. Even a few around Lumberton(!).
Nash County (where Roy Cooper is from) has one of the more unique paths: it was McCain -> Obama -> Trump -> Biden. For Senate it was also Tillis '14 -> Cunningham '20.

The blue there is west of the city of Rocky Mount.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Ironic that Dems are usually criticized as a 'coastal' party, but I think Georgia's relative *lack* of a coastline helps Dems -- it attracts fewer R retirees. The gains NC Dems made in New Hanover County (Wilmington) have easily been erased by R growth in Pender & Brunswick.
and this is even before you throw in Carteret and Craven.
It was close, but Brunswick County wouldn't even vote for Mike McIntyre in 2012 -- that's when it was gone for basically *any* Dem.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jan
Before #InaugurationDay closes out, have to say I thought a lot about how happy Sen. Hagan would be today. Biden visited her after she fell sick.
This was pre-pandemic (she died in late 2019).

They didn’t get her seat back but not her fault NC is becoming FL.
Strike the FL comparison — I meant as in seemingly slightly R for everything.

I knew I shouldn’t have gone there.
Read 5 tweets
6 Jan
well that was a fun election cycle
You guys know what I mean
Next person who brings up NY-22 is getting a block
Read 4 tweets

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